国际货币基金组织的一份工作文件称,美元稳定币可以改善获得外币的机会,但也可能有助于在严重的汇率压力时期协调当地货币的退出。 国际货币基金组织(IMF)发表的一篇新论文称,美元稳定币可以改善汇率固定或严格管理的经济体获得外币的机会,但当本币压力变得严峻时,也可能会加剧货币挤兑。 研究结果来自经济学家布兰登·乔尔·谭(Brandon Joel Tan)的一份工作论文。这篇题为“固定汇率制度中的稳定币和脆弱性”的论文模拟了当官方美元准入受到限制时稳定币如何影响平行外汇(FX)市场。 研究结果强调,当银行或官方兑换渠道无法满足需求时,稳定币可以帮助人们获得美元。然而,在货币危机期间,同样受到广泛关注的稳定币价格可能会促使许多人同时放弃当地货币,这表明监管机构可能需要对异常大规模或恐慌驱动的交易进行临时限制。
谭认为,稳定币使“类似美元的债权更容易获得”,同时为美元需求创造了可见的高频价格。当一个国家的官方汇率与市场汇率相差甚远时,该价格可能表明美元日益稀缺,并同时促使更多人放弃本国货币。 稳定币成为平行外汇基准 该论文的论点反映了在官方获得美元的渠道有限的国家中,稳定币已经得到了使用。 2025 年 6 月 9 日,玻利维亚机场零售商被发现使用 USDT 作为参考定价,但仍接受美元或玻利维亚诺。 2024 年, 报道称,阿根廷人正在利用地下“加密洞穴”以接近非官方市场的价格将比索兑换成美元稳定币。由于比索贬值且货币管制限制了美元的使用,这种做法为居民提供了另一种保存储蓄的方式。 相关:代币化使金融更加高效,但也带来了风险:国际货币基金组织
虽然这些用途凸显了稳定币的好处,但监管机构最近也对更广泛的风险发出了警告。 3 月 24 日,金融稳定委员会 (FSB) 表示,美元稳定币可能会使新兴经济体面临货币替代、货币政策疲软和规避资本流动措施的风险。 随着稳定币与更广泛的金融体系相互联系,金融稳定委员会敦促立法者评估稳定币行业的发展方式,以了解和应对流动性和运营风险。 杂志:加密货币游说者 1.89 亿美元的活动能否得到澄清?
An IMF working paper says dollar stablecoins can improve access to foreign currency but may also help coordinate exits from local currencies during periods of severe exchange-rate stress.
Dollar stablecoins could improve access to foreign currency in economies with fixed or heavily managed exchange rates, but may also amplify currency runs when pressure on the domestic currency becomes severe, according to a new paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The findings come from a working paper by economist Brandon Joel Tan. Titled “Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,” the paper modeled how stablecoins affect parallel foreign-exchange (FX) markets when official dollar access is rationed.
The findings highlight that stablecoins can help people get access to dollars when banks or official exchange channels cannot meet demand. However, during a currency crisis, the same widely watched stablecoin price could prompt many people to abandon the local currency simultaneously, suggesting that regulators may need temporary limits on unusually large or panic-driven transactions.
Tan argued that stablecoins make “dollar-like claims easier to access” while creating a visible, high-frequency price for dollar demand. When a country’s official exchange rate is far from the market rate, that price can signal growing dollar scarcity and prompt more people to move out of the local currency at the same time.
Stablecoins emerge as parallel FX benchmarks
The paper's argument reflects how stablecoins are already being used in countries where official access to dollars is limited. On June 9, 2025, Bolivian airport retailers were seen pricing goods using USDT as a reference, while still accepting US dollars or bolivianos.
In 2024, reported that Argentines were using underground “crypto caves” to exchange pesos for dollar-stablecoins at rates closer to the unofficial market. The practice gave residents another way to preserve savings as the peso lost value and currency controls restricted access to the dollar.
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While these uses highlighted the benefits of stablecoins, regulators have also recently warned about broader risks. On March 24, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) said dollar stablecoins could expose emerging economies to currency substitution, weaker monetary policy and the circumvention of capital-flow measures.
The FSB urged lawmakers to assess how the stablecoin sector develops to understand and respond to liquidity and operational risks as stablecoins interlink with the broader financial system.
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