简而言之 过去三天,比特币 ETF 产生了 5.1 亿美元的净流入。 21Shares 的詹姆斯·巴特菲尔 (James Butterfill) 表示,市场情绪可能正在好转。 这些产品在八周内流失了约 80 亿美元。 随着投资者谨慎地重返比特币,华尔街最喜欢的加密货币工具已连续三天实现净流入,扭转了创纪录的跌势。 资产管理公司 CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 表示,自上周五以来,与数字资产相关的交易所交易基金已吸纳约 5.1 亿美元资金,标志着“我们所见过的最大规模资金流出”势头的转变。 “看来情绪可能正在好转,”他说。 “这是自 5 月初资金流出开始以来我们所见过的最大的资金流入,表明我们可能已经度过了最糟糕的时期。” 尽管近年来比特币 ETF 非常受欢迎,但在过去八周内,比特币 ETF 已经损失了 80 亿美元,随着数字资产跌至 21 个月低点,投资者寻求庇护。在创纪录的流失中,年初至今的资金外流加深至 28 亿美元。
据 CoinGecko 称,周三,比特币易手价格约为 62,000 美元,较过去一周上涨 4%。本月早些时候,该数字资产跌至 58,000 美元,加剧了比特币从 10 月份 126,000 美元的跌幅。 Butterfill 表示,按比例计算,最新一波资金流出占比特币 ETF 管理资产的 8%,反映了 2018 年周期低点期间的活动。他称今年的资金撤资与去年 2 月投资者撤资 52 亿美元的情况类似。 在大多数情况下,配置比特币 ETF 的投资者都陷入困境。 Glassnode 表示,根据产品分配的平均成本基础,当比特币估值约为 83,800 美元时,平均买家获得了敞口。 Butterfill 表示,自去年数字资产价格达到顶峰以来,所谓的“鲸鱼”——通常持有 1,000 枚或更多比特币——已售出价值超过 400 亿美元的比特币。他指出,负面价格压力的根源最近已经减弱。
尽管比特币的最大持有者已经改变策略,但巴特菲尔警告称,随着美联储在中东冲突中继续对抗通胀,对美国收紧货币政策的预期可能会阻止比特币突破当前区间。 他补充道:“我们目前还不能说美联储即将降息,这将非常支持比特币。” “比特币对通胀前景、伊朗战争和美联储的前景仍然非常非常敏感。” 尽管比特币 ETF 的抛售创下了纪录,但其强度却未达到去年的水平。根据 CoinGlass 的数据,在最近一次的资金撤资中,每日净流出额已达到 7.33 亿美元的峰值,这一阈值去年曾数次超过。 每日简报时事通讯 每天从当前的热门新闻报道以及原创专题、播客、视频等开始。
In brief
Bitcoin ETFs have generated $510 million in net inflows over the past three days.
Sentiment could be turning a corner, according to 21Shares' James Butterfill.
The products have bled roughly $8 billion over the course of eight weeks.
Wall Street’s favorite crypto vehicles have notched net inflows for three consecutive days, reversing a record slump as investors cautiously wade back into Bitcoin.
Exchange-traded funds tied to the digital asset have pulled in roughly $510 million since Friday, marking a shift in momentum from the “largest run of outflows we’ve ever seen,” James Butterfill, head of research at asset manager CoinShares, told .
“It looks like sentiment might be turning a corner,” he said. “They are the largest inflows we’ve seen since the outflows began in early May, suggesting we’re maybe through the worst of it.”
Despite their overwhelming popularity in recent years, Bitcoin ETFs have shed $8 billion over the past eight weeks, with investors seeking shelter as the digital asset plunged to a 21-month low. Amid the record bleed, year-to-date outflows deepened to $2.8 billion.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin changed hands around $62,000, a 4% increase over the past week, according to CoinGecko. Earlier this month, the digital asset fell as low as $58,000, exacerbating Bitcoin’s tumble from $126,000 in October.
On a proportional basis, Butterfill said the latest streak of outflows represented 8% of assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs, mirroring activity during cycle lows in 2018. He described this year’s drawdown as similar to one last February that saw investors yank $5.2 billion.
For the most part, investors who have allocated to Bitcoin ETFs are underwater. Based on the average cost basis for allocations to the products, the average buyer gained exposure when Bitcoin was valued around $83,800, according to Glassnode.
So-called whales—who typically hold 1,000 Bitcoin or more—have sold more than $40 billion worth of Bitcoin since the digital asset’s price peaked last year, Butterfill said. He noted that the source of negative price pressure has abated as of late.
Although Bitcoin’s largest holders have shifted gears, Butterfill cautioned that expectations of tighter monetary policy in the U.S. could prevent Bitcoin from breaking out of its current range, as the Federal Reserve continues fighting inflation amid conflict in the Middle East.
“We’re not in a situation where we can say the Fed is on the cusp of cutting rates, and that would be very supportive to Bitcoin,” he added. “Bitcoin remains very, very sensitive to the inflation outlook, and by proxy, the Iran war and the outlook from the Fed.”
Although the sell-off for Bitcoin ETFs has set records, its intensity hasn’t matched moments last year. Amid the latest drawdown, daily net outflows have peaked at $733 million, according to CoinGlass, a threshold surpassed a handful of times last year.