作者 |吴区块链 Ivan 近年来，稳定币已成为全球加密金融基础设施的支柱。有报道称，该公司最大的发行人 Tether 正在寻求 5000 亿美元的估值，超越 OpenAI 和字节跳动，跻身全球最有价值的私营企业之列，该数字引发了广泛争论。这一数字在资本市场和数字资产行业都引发了争议。在高收益储备资产的推动下，Tether 的非凡利润展现了非凡的盈利能力。然而，该公司的商业模式仍然与宏观利率条件、监管态势、资产透明度和市场结构密切相关。本文从收入、资产构成、市场地位、监管风险和比较估值五个分析角度审视了估值背后的现实性和风险。收入和利润作为 USDT 稳定币的发行者，Tether 近年来取得了可观的盈利能力，这在很大程度上是由利息收入推动的。随着全球利率上升，该公司已将用户兑换的大部分美元储备投资于美国国债等低风险资产
息，产生可观的利息收入。报告显示，2024年，Tether录得约134亿美元的利润，主要来自其持有的大量美国国债的利息收入。这一盈利水平不仅远远超过加密行业的大多数公司，甚至在更广泛的科技领域也名列前茅。相比之下，OpenAI 的估值在 2023-2024 年期间飙升至 80-900 亿美元左右，但其收入基础仍然相对较小，主要依赖于其人工智能模型的许可和订阅。公司仍处于大量投资阶段，盈利能力有限。此后其估值已升至约 3000 亿美元，并可能高达 5000 亿美元。
Author | WuBlockchain Ivan
In recent years, stablecoins have become the backbone of the global crypto-financial infrastructure. Their largest issuer, Tether, has sparked wide debate following reports that the company is seeking a $500 billion valuation—surpassing OpenAI and ByteDance, and placing it among the world’s most valuable private enterprises.
The figure has stirred controversy across capital markets and the digital-asset industry alike. Tether’s extraordinary profits, fueled by high-yield reserve assets, showcase remarkable earning power. Yet the firm’s business model remains deeply tied to macro-interest-rate conditions, regulatory posture, asset transparency, and market structure.
This paper examines the realism and risks behind that valuation from five analytical perspectives: revenue, asset composition, market position, regulatory exposure, and comparative valuation.
Revenue and Profit
As the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, Tether has achieved remarkable profitability in recent years, largely driven by interest income. With global interest rates rising, the company has invested much of the U.S. dollar reserves exchanged by users into low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasury securities, generating substantial interest earnings. Reports indicate that in 2024, Tether recorded approximately 13.4 billion dollars in profit, primarily derived from interest income on its sizable holdings of U.S. Treasuries. This level of profitability not only far exceeds that of most companies in the crypto industry but also ranks among the highest even within the broader technology sector.
By comparison, OpenAI’s valuation surged to around 80–90 billion dollars during 2023–2024, yet its revenue base remains relatively small, relying mainly on the licensing and subscription of its artificial intelligence models. The company is still in a heavy investment phase, with limited profitability. Its valuation has since risen to roughly 300 billion dollars—and may reach as high as 500 billion—reflecting primarily investors’ expectations of future growth rather than current earnings.
ByteDance, meanwhile, is valued between 250 and 300 billion dollars. According to 2023 data, the company generated profits of about 40 billion dollars, supported by a diversified business portfolio spanning short videos, advertising, and e-commerce. Its massive revenue and profit base justify its multibillion-dollar valuation.
Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, offers a sharp contrast. It planned to go public in 2024 with an expected valuation of just 9 to 10 billion dollars. Its 2024 revenue was approximately 1.68 billion dollars, with net profit around 156 million dollars—a scale far smaller than Tether’s.
From a profitability standpoint, Tether’s current earnings far exceed those of OpenAI and Circle, approaching or even surpassing some traditional technology giants. However, its business model is highly dependent on external factors—specifically, global interest rates and demand for stablecoins. Tether does not pay interest to users and has few other meaningful revenue sources, meaning that its substantial interest income is cyclical in nature. Should global interest rates return to lower levels, Tether’s interest earnings would shrink significantly, and its profitability could decline accordingly.
In addition, the overall expansion of the stablecoin market and trading activity directly influence Tether’s revenue potential. By contrast, the valuations of OpenAI and ByteDance rest largely on expectations of long-term growth driven by technological innovation and user scale. Tether’s lofty valuation, on the other hand, presumes that its current level of profit is both sustainable and capable of continued growth. Therefore, viewed purely from the perspective of revenue and profit, assigning Tether a valuation of 500 billion dollars appears somewhat aggressive and raises questions about the durability of its earnings.
Asset Structure
Assessing whether Tether’s valuation is justified requires a close look at its balance sheet and risk profile. According to Tether’s regularly published reserve reports, the company’s reserves are primarily composed of high-liquidity, low-risk assets. As of the end of 2023, Tether stated that nearly 90 percent of its reserves consisted of cash and cash equivalents, including short-term U.S. Treasury bills, overnight and term repurchase agreements, and money market funds. Tether has long since eliminated exposure to commercial paper and other higher-risk instruments, shifting instead to large holdings of high-grade securities.
Analysts estimate that Tether holds over 100 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries, approximately 82,000 bitcoins (valued at about 5.5 billion dollars), and 48 tons of gold as part of its diversification strategy. The company has also engaged in limited lending and other investments, but by the end of 2023, its roughly 5.4 billion dollars in excess reserves were sufficient to cover all such risk exposures. In other words, even after accounting for these higher-risk assets, Tether’s total assets still fully covered its liabilities, leaving a substantial cushion.
Greater transparency in reserve reporting has also strengthened market confidence. Tether now issues quarterly attestation reports verified by independent accounting firms such as BDO, detailing its asset composition and total reserve holdings. This level of transparency was not always present—Tether faced heavy criticism in the past for insufficient disclosure and was fined by regulators in 2021 for making misleading statements.
However, recent reports indicate that the quality of Tether’s reserves has improved significantly and has been tested under real market conditions. Under normal circumstances, the company appears capable of meeting large-scale redemptions: its extensive holdings of U.S. Treasuries and repurchase agreements can be liquidated quickly. Notably, during the crypto market downturn in 2022, Tether successfully processed redemption requests totaling as much as 21 billion dollars while maintaining full redemption parity.
Of course, Tether is not entirely free from structural risks. First, while its holdings of bitcoin and gold have generated additional income—these assets have previously contributed sizable unrealized gains—they are inherently volatile. In extreme market conditions, fluctuations in their value could affect Tether’s overall net asset position.
Second, although transparency has improved, Tether has not yet undergone a full public audit. Market trust in its reserves still relies largely on attestation reports and the company’s reputation, which differs fundamentally from the rigorous regulatory audits faced by publicly listed firms.
Third, Tether’s assets are heavily concentrated in U.S. Treasuries. This provides the benefit of strong credit backing from the U.S. government but also ties Tether’s financial health closely to the performance of traditional bond markets and the U.S. debt environment. Should the Treasury market experience severe volatility or a liquidity squeeze, Tether’s assets would come under corresponding pressure.
It is worth noting that U.S. Treasury officials have recently acknowledged that, as the government continues large-scale bond issuance to fund expenditures, major stablecoin issuers have become significant buyers of U.S. debt. In this sense, Tether has become intertwined with the traditional financial system—a sign of strength, but also an indication that its fortunes are now partially bound to it.
Overall, Tether’s balance sheet appears relatively sound, with ample buffers in place. This provides a tangible foundation for its high valuation—after all, such a large market capitalization must be backed by real assets. However, sustaining that valuation over the long term will depend on Tether’s ability to maintain, and ideally further enhance, both the quality of its asset allocation and the transparency of its disclosures. Only continued prudence and openness can preserve investor confidence in the durability of its valuation.
Market Position and Share
Tether’s dominance in the stablecoin market remains unchallenged. As of the third quarter of 2025, USDT accounts for roughly 59 percent of all U.S. dollar–denominated stablecoins, maintaining a firm lead. According to recent data, USDT’s circulation has reached around 172 billion USD, while the second-largest stablecoin, USDC issued by Circle, holds a market capitalization of approximately 74 billion USD—less than half that of USDT. With an estimated global user base approaching 500 million, USDT has long functioned as the “digital dollar” in cryptocurrency exchanges, cross-border remittances, and over-the-counter trading, serving as a cornerstone of liquidity across the crypto market.
However, Tether’s dominant position is increasingly being challenged and eroded by competitors. USDC, its main rival, has long emphasized compliance and transparency as its core advantages. After experiencing turbulence in 2023 due to disruptions in the U.S. banking sector that affected part of its reserve deposits, USDC’s market capitalization declined sharply but began to recover through 2024 and 2025. According to disclosures from Circle, demand for USDC rose significantly following the passage of U.S. legislation establishing a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins—such as the “Genius Act.” In the second quarter of 2025, USDC’s circulation increased by 90 percent year-on-year, with over 12.3 billion USD in new inflows during the third quarter, bringing its market share back up to around 25 percent. This trend suggests that in a more defined regulatory environment and with greater participation from traditional financial institutions, compliant stablecoins may gain a late-mover advantage.
The shifting market landscape suggests that while Tether remains dominant, it is far from invulnerable. USDT faces several underlying risks in the ongoing competition among stablecoins.
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