研究：从理性交易到投机成瘾：散户投资者如何陷入永续……Study: From Rational Trading to Speculative Addiction: How Retail Investors Slip into the Perpetual…

研究：从理性交易到投机成瘾：散户投资者如何陷入永久陷阱Ivan Wu区块链I.为加密货币市场而生永续合约（也称为永续期货或永续掉期）是一种创新类型的衍生工具，由加密货币交易所 BitMEX 于 2016 年左右首次推出。“永续期货”的概念可以追溯到 1992 年，当时经济学家 Robert Shiller 提出了这一概念，作为为非流动性资产创建可交易工具的一种手段。然而，在 BitMEX 将其变为现实之前，这一概念在传统金融中几乎没有受到关注。 2016 年 5 月，BitMEX 推出比特币永续合约（XBTUSD），开创了无到期日的期货产品。这种结构很快就获得了关注，完美地满足了加密货币市场的需求。它很快成为各大数字资产交易所的标准产品。永续合约的兴起与加密货币市场的独特结构密切相关。与传统市场不同，加密货币在全球范围内 24/7 进行交易，没有休市时间或节假日。在传统期货中，合约到期和预定平仓通常会中断交易，而永续合约本质上适合

加密货币的连续性——投资者可以不受限制地随时开仓和平仓。此外，加密资产缺乏统一、权威的现货价格锚——价格在全球众多交易所分散，极易受到短期情绪波动的影响。永续合约通过使用资金费率机制来解决这个问题，使合约价格与参考现货指数紧密一致，防止由于缺乏结算而导致长期背离。在没有中央收盘价的市场中，这种机制充当动态稳定器。投机在加密货币文化中也根深蒂固。投资者青睐高杠杆率和波动性——永续合约满足这两个要求。凭借内置杠杆、双向交易和无交割要求，它们降低了电子交易的门槛

Study: From Rational Trading to Speculative Addiction: How Retail Investors Slip into the Perpetual Trap

Author | Ivan WuBlockchain

I. Born for the Crypto Market

Perpetual contracts — also known as perpetual futures or perpetual swaps — are an innovative type of derivatives instrument first introduced by crypto exchange BitMEX around 2016. The idea of “perpetual futures” dates back to 1992, when economist Robert Shiller proposed the concept as a means to create tradable instruments for illiquid assets. However, the concept saw little traction in traditional finance until BitMEX brought it to life. In May 2016, BitMEX launched the Bitcoin perpetual contract (XBTUSD), pioneering a futures product with no expiry date. This structure quickly gained traction, perfectly matching the needs of the crypto market. It soon became a standard product across major digital asset exchanges.

The rise of perpetual contracts is closely tied to the unique structure of the crypto market. Unlike traditional markets, crypto trades 24/7 globally, with no closing hours or holidays. In traditional futures, contract expiry and scheduled closures often interrupt trading, while perpetuals are inherently suited for the continuous nature of crypto — investors can open and close positions at any time without constraints. Moreover, crypto assets lack a unified, authoritative spot price anchor — prices are fragmented across numerous global exchanges and highly susceptible to short-term sentiment swings. Perpetual contracts solve this by using a funding rate mechanism to keep contract prices closely aligned with a reference spot index, preventing long-term divergence due to the absence of settlement. In a market without a central closing price, this mechanism acts as a dynamic stabilizer.

Speculation also runs deep in crypto culture. Investors favor high leverage and volatility — perpetuals meet both demands. With built-in leverage, two-way trading, and no delivery requirement, they lower the barrier to entry and amplify exposure. BitMEX saw trading volumes surge following its perpetual launch, establishing its early dominance in crypto derivatives. Today, perpetual contracts are the backbone of crypto derivatives trading, offered by nearly every major exchange.

II. Gambler Psychology and the Dopamine Trap

The popularity of perpetual contract trading reveals underlying traits common to gambling psychology. One of the key reasons gambling is so addictive lies in how unpredictable outcomes stimulate the brain’s reward circuitry. As early as the mid-20th century, behavioral psychologist B.F. Skinner observed that it’s not the frequent wins that keep people hooked, but rather the uncertainty of outcomes. In other words, gamblers don’t stay at the table because they’re winning — they stay because the next result is unknown: “People don’t gamble because they win, but because the outcome is unpredictable.”

This psychological mechanism is tightly linked to dopamine release. Neuroscience has shown that the brain’s dopamine levels spike most intensely in situations where rewards are uncertain. When rewards are predictable and guaranteed, the dopamine response is far less dramatic. The surprise element of an unpredictable outcome triggers stronger neural excitation, making the experience more emotionally charged. This is why casinos design slot machines to operate on highly randomized reward patterns — keeping players locked in cycles of near misses and occasional wins. Each time a player narrowly avoids losing or lands a small payout, the brain’s reward system is reactivated, creating a continuous stream of dopamine that fuels addictive behavior.

Moreover, the pleasure triggered by uncertainty does not require actual rewards to be sustained. In his behavioral experiments, Skinner discovered that variable ratio reward schedules — where rewards are dispensed only occasionally and unpredictably — are the most effective at reinforcing persistent behavior. For instance, when pigeons were given food after pecking a button — sometimes once, sometimes ten times — the introduction of random intervals led to a noticeable increase in both pecking frequency and intensity. What drove the pigeons’ heightened efforts was the anticipation born of uncertainty.

This same principle underpins human gambling behavior. Slot machines are textbook examples of devices that exploit variable rewards to keep users hooked. Since players never know whether the next spin will hit, the ever-shifting hope of a win becomes the most powerful motivator. Some gamblers will continue playing mechanically for extended periods, captivated not by consistent rewards but by the mere possibility of a jackpot.

Neuroscientific research confirms that the brain’s dopamine circuits are especially sensitive to these fluctuating rewards. When outcomes are hard to predict, neural activity surges; when rewards become expected and routine, dopamine responses diminish. This helps explain why gamblers are often fixated on high-risk, low-probability bets: the uncertainty itself becomes a source of excitement, regardless of the actual odds of success.

III. Variable Rewards and the Allure of High-Frequency Trading

The behavior of trading perpetual crypto futures closely mirrors the psychological mechanisms of gambling discussed above. Investors engage in high-frequency buying and selling, constantly facing highly uncertain outcomes in terms of profits and losses. It is precisely this variable reward structure that fuels trading addiction and the compulsive need to monitor the market in real time.

In perpetual futures markets, prices fluctuate rapidly and intensely, with every trade yielding immediate yet unpredictable feedback. This environment is functionally equivalent to placing bets in a casino — traders commit capital to wager on uncertain price movements, hoping for variable and unforeseeable returns. In fact, researchers have compared intraday trading of stocks and cryptocurrencies to gambling addiction, pointing out striking similarities in their psychological profiles: both involve repeated monetary wagers on unpredictable outcomes, producing a stream of inconsistent rewards that typify gambling disorders.

Each time a trader opens their trading app or refreshes price charts, it’s akin to pulling the lever of a slot machine — perhaps they’ll see portfolio gains spike (a small win), or perhaps they’ll witness a sharp drawdown or even liquidation (a loss). It is this intermittent reinforcement loop that keeps many glued to the screen, executing trades compulsively, in search of the next emotional high brought on by price volatility.

It’s worth noting that the design of modern trading software and market information delivery significantly amplifies this addictive dynamic. Mobile trading platforms constantly push price alerts, profit/loss notifications, and other stimuli that keep users tethered to the market. This mechanism mirrors how social media platforms hook users through intermittent rewards. Rapidly refreshing candlestick charts and fluctuating profit-and-loss figures provide traders with a stream of short-cycle, high-frequency micro-rewards and punishments — essentially a series of quick, consecutive “mini-gambles.”

In such an environment, some investors begin to exhibit classic compulsive behavior: obsessively monitoring the market, unable to look away for fear of missing a profitable move. This hypervigilance is indistinguishable from the trance-like focus of gamblers glued to the roulette wheel. In behavioral finance, this is referred to as the “illusion of control” — an inflated belief that constant monitoring and intervention can master an inherently random system.

In reality, uncertainty is the market’s baseline state. Yet it is precisely this lack of control that psychologically drives traders to keep trying, just like the pigeons in B.F. Skinner’s experiments who endlessly pecked at a lever in the hope of receiving the next food pellet.

IV. The Slot Machine That Never Sleeps: 24/7 Markets and the Perpetual Swap

The perpetual swap exists within the 24/7 framework of the crypto market — a structure that further reinforces the gambling-like nature of trading and its accompanying psychological traps. Traditional equity markets have defined opening and closing hours, giving traders natural pauses for rest and reflection. But crypto markets run around the clock, never closing, allowing investors to open and close positions at any time. It’s as if the casino has been placed in everyone’s pocket — bets can be placed at any hour, and the doors never shut.

This always-on environment closely resembles the instant gratification offered by slot machines: there’s no need to wait for others or for scheduled playtimes — just insert your stake and spin again. Likewise, perpetual swap traders can gain or lose money at any moment, with no “halftime break” enforced by the market. This uninterrupted exposure eliminates behavioral friction that might otherwise encourage restraint.

Psychological studies warn that if traditional financial markets were to adopt 24/7 trading, they could trigger public health risks similar to those seen with online gambling. An environment without breaks can significantly exacerbate compulsive trading behavior, allowing dopamine-fueled speculation to spiral unchecked. For retail traders lacking self-control, this continuous accessibility becomes a constant source of temptation. Without weekends or nighttime closures to impose cool-down periods, they may find themselves trading around the clock — leading to both mental and physical exhaustion.

The combination of high leverage and 24/7 accessibility further replicates the classic slot machine loop of “insert coin — pull lever — instant outcome.” Many crypto trading platforms allow users to apply leverage of several times, even up to 100x, magnifying both the gains and losses from each price movement. This mirrors increasing the bet size on a slot machine — both risk and potential reward scale up together, making it easier for participants to fall into the impulse of “going all in.”

In a market that never sleeps, leveraged trading creates a perpetual high-speed game: prices can surge or plunge within minutes, and account balances can change dramatically in seconds. Traders’ brains are kept in a constant state of arousal. As some experts have pointed out, day trading and crypto derivatives speculation share deep psychological similarities with sports betting and casino gambling. In all cases, participants place frequent bets on volatile, short-term outcomes, receive instant win/loss feedback, and are emotionally reinforced by social validation.

Dopamine-fueled emotional swings define the entire experience — anticipation of profit, euphoria upon winning, frustration and denial after losses — all coalescing into an addictive emotional roller coaster. And with perpetual markets running 24 hours a day, that roller coaster is always ready for another ride, with virtually no moment of forced exit.

From the perspective of casino operations, nonstop activity and high unpredictability are key drivers of profitability. Studies show that modern casinos allocate over 80% of their floor space to slot machines and other electronic gambling devices, as these offer purely random payouts that best keep gamblers engaged for long periods. Likewise, crypto trading platforms leverage similar human vulnerabilities by offering high-frequency trading interfaces, leverage tools, and round-the-clock markets — ensuring users always have both the opportunity and the incentive to place another trade.

In crypto markets, the funding rate mechanism requires long and short position holders to periodically pay or receive fees every eight hours. This introduces a layer of micro rewards and penalties during the course of a trade, akin to “interest” that rewards or punishes a position while the trader awaits price movement. While the mechanism is designed to keep perpetual contract prices anchored to spot indices, psychologically it shortens the reward cycle even further — traders receive a mini profit or loss update every few hours (e.g., longs pay and shorts earn under positive rates, and vice versa). It’s reminiscent of a slot machine that offers minor wins or losses every few spins, continually reinforcing user engagement.

Evidently, the 24/7 structure of perpetual contract markets has “gamified” trading behavior to a certain extent: the loop of instant trading, instant settlement, and instant feedback places users in a psychological state akin to that of video gaming or gambling. During periods of extreme market volatility, this structure further encourages irrational decision-making — since a potential windfall or a chance to recover losses can appear at any moment, traders struggle to restrain themselves from acting. As one research report noted, extending trading hours to a round-the-clock schedule significantly increases compulsive trading tendencies among retail investors. Without natural pauses on weekends or at night, many fall deeper into dopamine-driven speculative behavior from which they cannot easily disengage.

Some behavioral treatment centers have already flagged a rise in cases of “crypto trading addiction”: reports indicate that after 2020, around 10% of clients sought help for compulsive trading — a phenomenon that was nearly nonexistent before. This indirectly confirms the addictive risk posed by 24-hour products like perpetual contracts. When financial markets resemble “casinos that never close,” certain participants begin to exhibit symptoms similar to those of slot machine addicts — ultimately requiring professional intervention to escape the cycle.

V. From Rational Trading to Speculative Addiction: How Retail Investors Slip into the Perpetual Trap

From the perspectives of behavioral finance and cognitive psychology, retail investors’ susceptibility to addiction in perpetual contract trading is not merely driven by the lure of profits. A deeper explanation lies in the complex interplay between the brain’s reward-punishment system and cognitive biases. The fluctuating feedback of gains and losses forms a classic “dopamine reward loop”: each time before opening a position, the brain anticipates the possibility of a windfall. Even if the trade ends in loss, the anticipation itself is enough to activate the brain’s reward mechanisms. This mirrors the logic behind slot machine design — where the sensation of “almost winning” is itself addictive, regardless of the unfavorable actual odds. When markets become highly volatile, this heightened state of arousal is amplified. Trading ceases to be a disciplined execution of strategy and instead morphs into a hormone-driven impulsive act.

At the same time, “loss aversion” drives retail traders to resist cutting their losses. The psychological pain of losing is often far greater than the pleasure of an equivalent gain. Faced with a loss, individuals tend to double down to average down their entry, deny the situation, or simply close the app to avoid facing reality — instead of exiting rationally. This hesitation often turns a small loss into a deep, irreversible hole. Conversely, when in profit, the fear of seeing those gains evaporate leads many to close positions prematurely. In contrast, professional traders are more likely to treat losses as part of the planned cost of doing business, adhering to strict stop-loss discipline. This divergence in “emotional resilience” is what ultimately separates long-term outcomes between the two groups.

A more fundamental issue lies in retail traders’ overestimation of their own control. A few short-term successful trades are often misattributed to skill rather than luck, fostering the illusion that the market can be conquered. This “illusion of control” encourages frequent trading, attempting to substitute effort for systematic discipline — only to deepen the trader’s entanglement with market noise. Psychologically, this behavior creates a sense of agency: traders feel they are “in charge of the outcome” rather than subject to market forces. In contrast, seasoned professionals understand that market uncertainty can never be fully tamed. Instead of resisting it, they rely on risk management tools to adapt.

The community environment amplifies individual perceptions. Screenshots of profits posted by KOLs and tales of overnight riches construct an illusory template for success, while FOMO fuels the fear of missing out on “the next 100x token.” Within these communities, structures of recognition subtly reinforce this mindset: failure is romanticized as a style, and liquidation can even be worn as a badge of honor. This group reinforcement makes it harder for individuals to break free — “betting” is no longer a solitary decision, but a form of social participation. And thus, the addiction loop quietly completes itself.

VI. The Chasm in a Zero-Sum Game: Contrasting Professional Trading and the “Retail Perpetuals Model”

In the world of financial trading, a vast gulf separates professional traders from retail participants engrossed in short-term perpetual contracts. The former operate with validated positive expected value (EV) strategies, grounded in statistical edge and disciplined execution, aiming for consistent profits across a large sample of trades. The latter, by contrast, are often lured by the uncertain reward mechanisms of perpetual swaps, turning trading into an impulsive, gambling-like behavior that fuels a cycle of irrational addiction.

A positive expected value (EV) strategy refers to one in which each trade, over the long run, has a mathematically positive expected return. Such strategies rely on repeatable trading edges rather than luck and emphasize winning through probabilities. Professional traders do not blindly gamble — they identify advantaged trades by analyzing market structure, statistical patterns, and fundamental data, seeking opportunities where the odds and risk-reward ratios are tilted in their favor. As long as the strategy has a statistical edge over a large number of trades, even if individual positions incur losses, the cumulative outcome remains profitable. This mirrors how casinos earn by maintaining a probabilistic edge: professional traders strive to act as the “house,” not the uninformed gambler.

Professional traders commonly adopt positive EV strategies such as, but not limited to, the following:

● Statistical Arbitrage: This involves using quantitative models to identify short-term price discrepancies between correlated assets and executing paired trades to capture profits. Typically, the strategy involves market-neutral positions (going long and short on related assets simultaneously) to isolate gains from overall market movements. Profits are earned as the price spread mean-reverts. This strategy usually offers a high win rate but low per-trade returns, requiring high-frequency trading and rigorous risk management to accumulate small wins into meaningful gains. Risk controls — such as stop-losses — are essential to contain losses when model assumptions break down.

● Trend Following: This strategy seeks to profit from capturing mid- to long-term price trends. Traders follow predetermined rules to enter trades when a clear upward or downward trend emerges, and exit decisively with a stop-loss when trends reverse. Classic trend-following emphasizes discipline and systematic thinking — excluding subjective bias and emotional interference by strictly adhering to model signals. Because strong trends often produce large gains that exceed small stop-loss losses, this strategy typically yields a “small loss + large win” payoff structure, resulting in positive long-term expectancy.

● Market Making: Market makers continuously quote both bid and ask prices, aiming to profit primarily from the bid-ask spread. They serve as liquidity providers for the market, earning consistent spread income regardless of market direction through two-way transactions. By managing inventory and implementing hedging strategies, they minimize net directional exposure and reduce the risk of losses from unilateral price movements. This strategy typically boasts very high win rates and extremely small profits per trade, but benefits from high trade frequency and risk diversification, resulting in a smooth and steadily rising long-term equity curve.

● Delta/Gamma-Neutral Options Arbitrage: This strategy seeks to profit from risk premiums embedded in option pricing. Traders construct delta-neutral portfolios (e.g., selling options while hedging with the underlying asset) to neutralize sensitivity to small price movements in the underlying. The focus is then on earning from the time decay of options (Theta) or from changes in implied volatility. By dynamically rebalancing the portfolio to maintain Delta and Gamma neutrality, traders effectively eliminate directional risk and capture returns similar to collecting option “insurance premiums.” As long as implied volatility is appropriately priced, the strategy holds positive expectancy statistically. With built-in hedging, the strategy tends to have controlled volatility, though it requires sophisticated risk management and continuous monitoring.

Despite the differences among the strategies mentioned above, they all share common foundations: rational planning, rigorous risk control, and a long-term perspective. Professional traders apply a slow-thinking, systematic approach to both strategy formulation and execution. They rely on data analysis, model validation, and accumulated experience to act with clarity and intention. Before each trade, they ask themselves: “What is the probability of success? What is the risk-to-reward ratio? What is my contingency plan if I’m wrong?” This emphasis on probabilities and statistical edge transforms trading into a disciplined business endeavor, rather than a game of chance.

At the same time, risk management is the cornerstone of professional trading strategies. Professional traders typically limit the risk of each individual trade to a small fraction of their account (e.g., 0.5% to 2%), ensuring that even a series of consecutive losses won’t significantly damage their capital base. They use stop-losses and position size limits to guard against emotional decision-making, and strictly adhere to predefined strategies. When losses occur, professionals tend to follow their rules and cut their losses, conducting post-trade reviews to learn from the outcome — instead of doubling down in a gambler’s attempt to “win it back.” It is precisely this discipline and self-restraint that enables positive-EV strategies to avoid emotional rollercoasters. For many seasoned traders, trading is more about executing a well-defined plan than chasing excitement — they pursue steady long-term growth rather than short-term thrills.

VII. Do Bitcoin Whales Dream of Genius Traders?

“Getting rich through trading” has been seen as the most direct and thrilling path. One could enter and exit anonymously, without the constraints of trading hours or the gatekeeping of traditional financial institutions. Coupled with leverage tools, near-instant execution, and the ability to go long or short, the crypto market appeared to offer traders a tailor-made arena for “infinite games.” However, this decentralized freedom — alongside the seductive narrative of rapid wealth — has quietly transformed trading into something akin to gambling. Many newcomers to the market believe they are chasing the frontiers of financial technology, unaware that they’ve already fallen into the psychological trap of addiction-driven speculation.

In truth, the development of Web3 has never been solely about speculation. The on-chain world is not just a casino for “24/7 screen-watchers,” but an experimental ground aiming to reshape mechanisms of trust, models of collaboration, and the ownership of data. Innovations like DeFi, DAOs, RWAs, on-chain identity, and privacy-preserving computation all represent evolving frontiers in this space. Perpetual contract trading is merely one subset — albeit a large one with significant participation — but it is not the essence of blockchain, nor is it a path everyone must take. Choosing not to trade, not to leverage, not to chase highs is also a legitimate form of participation. Whether it’s developers getting paid in ETH, DAO community members contributing to governance proposals, or long-term holders treating Bitcoin as a store of value — they don’t need to be genius traders to find their place in this emerging landscape.

What makes the world of Web3 so complex and captivating is that it’s not a world with standard answers. Speculation and construction coexist; narratives and technologies carry equal weight; whales and ordinary people share the same liquidity pool. Some get rich flipping perpetual contracts, while others walk away for good after a single liquidation. Some teams reshape industries by building protocols, while some individuals earn economic rewards through active community participation. Finding one’s own pace and path is the key to long-term survival.

So the next time we open our trading app and search for opportunity amid the flickering red and green candles, perhaps it’s worth asking: has that silent and anonymous Bitcoin whale ever dreamed of becoming a genius trader, grinding day and night in front of the charts?

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