简而言之 北卡罗来纳州通过了一项法律，承认 CFTC 对 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等预测市场的权威，打破了各州试图将这些市场视为赌博进行监管的做法。 该条款由州长乔什·斯坦 (Josh Stein) 于 7 月 7 日签署，对平台按北卡罗来纳州归属净交易费的 6% 征税，而体育博彩运营商的税率为 23%。 几天前，一名纽约法官在法庭上对卡尔希造成了重大挫折，加深了全国范围内的分歧，并最终向高等法院提起诉讼。 北卡罗来纳州已成为少数几个在预测市场不断升级的斗争中正式站在联邦监管机构一边的州之一，并颁布了一项法律，承认 CFTC 对 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等平台的权威。 州长乔什·斯坦于 7 月 7 日签署了该措施，作为该州 2026 年预算（参议院第 257 号法案）的一部分。该法规称，经商品期货交易委员会注册和许可的预测市场可以在该州合法运营，因为《商品交易法》确立了该机构对此类平台的“独家联邦监管权”。 预测市场和州税
该法律将预测市场的监督权交给了华盛顿，并且只是收取了一定的费用。自 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，对归属于北卡罗来纳州居民的运营商净交易费收入征收 6% 的税，但该法规明确规定，该征税不承担任何类型的许可、注册或其他监管义务。 这比该州对博彩公司适用的做法要轻得多：北卡罗来纳州同时将体育博彩运营商的税收从总博彩收入的 18% 提高到 23%。它也比其他国家所追求的更加温和。肯塔基州通过了一项法案，对平台收取 14.25% 的交易费用，引发了美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 的投诉，而伊利诺伊州则通过分级交易税和许可规则将预测市场纳入其体育博彩制度，卡尔希迅速在法庭上提出质疑。 反抗国家镇压
北卡罗来纳州的立场是异常的。十多个州已采取行动，将预测市场视为未经许可的体育博彩，引发了一波诉讼。 CFTC 已起诉至少 9 个州，以捍卫其所谓的专属管辖权，而肯塔基州对 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的诉讼只是最新的一次。法院分歧严重，这些平台在新泽西州和田纳西州赢得了禁令，但在马里兰州、内华达州和亚利桑那州输了。 北卡罗来纳州的法律在卡尔希遭遇迄今为止最大的挫折几天后出台，纽约联邦法官本周驳回了卡尔希阻止州赌博监管机构的请求，认为《商品交易法》并没有优先于适用于其体育合同的纽约赌博法。 由于裁决指向相反的方向，这场纠纷似乎越来越需要美国最高法院审理。 CFTC 正在单独敲定有关活动合同的国家规则，这些规则最终可能会消除各州之间的混乱局面，其公众意见征询期将于 7 月 27 日结束。 每日简报时事通讯 每天从当前的热门新闻报道以及原创专题、播客、视频等开始。
In brief
North Carolina has passed a law recognizing the CFTC's authority over prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, breaking with states trying to police them as gambling.
The provision, signed by Governor Josh Stein on July 7, taxes the platforms at 6% of their North Carolina-attributable net trading fees, versus a 23% rate on sports betting operators.
It lands days after a New York judge dealt Kalshi a major courtroom setback, deepening a national split headed for the higher courts.
North Carolina has become one of the few states to formally side with federal regulators in the escalating fight over prediction markets, enacting a law that recognizes the CFTC's authority over platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Governor Josh Stein signed the measure on July 7 as part of the state's 2026 budget, Senate Bill 257. A prediction market registered and licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission may operate lawfully in the state, the statute says, because the Commodity Exchange Act establishes the agency's "exclusive federal regulatory authority" over such platforms.
Prediction markets and state taxes
The law leaves oversight of prediction markets to Washington and simply takes a cut. It imposes a 6% tax on operators' net trading fee revenue attributable to North Carolina residents from January 1, 2027, but the statute is explicit that the levy carries no licensing, registration or other regulatory obligations of any kind.
That is a far lighter touch than the state applies to bookmakers: North Carolina simultaneously raised its tax on sports betting operators from 18% to 23% of gross wagering revenue. It is also gentler than what other states are pursuing. Kentucky passed a bill taxing platforms 14.25% of transaction fees, prompting a CFTC complaint, while Illinois folded prediction markets into its sports-wagering regime with a tiered transaction tax and licensing rules that Kalshi swiftly moved to challenge in court.
Bucking the state crackdown
North Carolina's stance is an outlier. More than a dozen states have moved to treat prediction markets as unlicensed sports betting, triggering a wave of litigation. The CFTC has sued at least nine states to defend what it calls its exclusive jurisdiction, and Kentucky's suit against Kalshi and Polymarket is only the latest front. Courts have split badly, with the platforms winning injunctions in New Jersey and Tennessee but losing in Maryland, Nevada and Arizona.
The North Carolina law arrives days after Kalshi's biggest setback yet, with a New York federal judge this week denying Kalshi's request to block state gambling regulators, finding the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt New York's gambling laws as applied to its sports contracts.
With rulings pointing in opposite directions, the dispute increasingly looks bound for the U.S. Supreme Court. The CFTC is separately finalizing national rules for event contracts that could eventually smooth over the state-by-state patchwork, with its public comment period closing July 27.
