稳定币繁荣能否成为加密货币的“ChatGPT时刻”？Can the Stablecoin Boom Become Crypto’s “ChatGPT Moment”?

TL;DR：稳定币显着增长，但尚未出现“ChatGPT 式”繁荣：自 2025 年 9 月加密市场达到顶峰以来，稳定币总供应量已从约 2860 亿美元增长到约 3160 亿美元，增幅约为 10.6%。虽然从2025年初开始累计增速超过50%，但整个行业仍没有表现出ChatGPT早期的指数扩散特征。本质上是美元体系的链上延伸：主流稳定币通过100%准备金机制与美元现金、短期国债等资产挂钩。它们的核心功能是将美元支付和结算路径迁移到区块链网络上，而不是创建新的货币信用层或独立的货币体系。 由需求迁移驱动的增长，而不是需求创造：目前，稳定币主要吸收现有的金融需求，包括贸易结算、跨境支付、美元价值存储和 DeFi 流动性。它们的扩张很大程度上源于传统金融活动上链的迁移，而不是全新用户行为或消费者需求的产生。 监管清晰度和制度E

齐头并进：GENIUS 法案正在稳步明确美国稳定币监管框架，同时 Circle、Visa、Mastercard、Stripe 和 PayPal 等机构也持续保持战略定位。稳定币正在迅速融入主流金融体系，尽管它们同时面临更严格的储备披露、AML/KYC协议和审计要求。 金融基础设施升级，而不是加密货币的“ChatGPT时刻”：通过市场结构、增长动力和分销渠道分析，稳定币正在将自己打造成美元体系的关键链上结算基础设施。然而，目前没有足够的证据表明它们拥有产生大量新需求并实现增长的能力。

TL;DR:

• Significant Stablecoin Growth, But No “ChatGPT-Style” Boom Yet: Since the crypto market peak in September 2025, total stablecoin supply has grown from approximately $286 billion to roughly $316 billion — an increase of about 10.6%. While cumulative growth exceeds 50% when measured from the start of 2025, the sector as a whole still does not exhibit the exponential diffusion characteristic of ChatGPT’s early stages.
• Essentially an On-Chain Extension of the USD System: Mainstream stablecoins are pegged to assets like US dollar cash and short-term Treasuries via a 100% reserve mechanism. Their core function is migrating USD payment and settlement pathways onto blockchain networks, rather than creating a new layer of monetary credit or an independent monetary system.
• Growth Driven by Demand Migration, Not Demand Creation: Currently, stablecoins primarily absorb existing financial needs, including trade settlement, cross-border payments, USD value storage, and DeFi liquidity. Their expansion stems largely from the migration of traditional financial activities on-chain, rather than the generation of entirely new user behaviors or consumer demand.
• Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Entry Advancing in Tandem: The GENIUS Act is steadily bringing clarity to the US stablecoin regulatory framework, alongside sustained strategic positioning by institutions such as Circle, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and PayPal. Stablecoins are rapidly integrating into the mainstream financial system, though they simultaneously face more stringent reserve disclosures, AML/KYC protocols, and auditing requirements.
• A Financial Infrastructure Upgrade, Not Crypto’s “ChatGPT Moment”: Analyzed through market structure, growth drivers, and distribution channels, stablecoins are establishing themselves as a critical on-chain settlement infrastructure for the US dollar system. However, there is currently insufficient evidence to suggest they possess the capacity to generate massive new demand and grow independently of crypto market cycles, as ChatGPT did in its sector.

Over the past year, stablecoins have emerged as one of the hottest crypto narratives in the US market. From the White House’s executive order in January 2025 aimed at strengthening US leadership in digital financial technologies, to the advancement of a federal regulatory framework around the GENIUS Act, alongside Circle’s IPO and continuous strategic positioning by traditional financial institutions like Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and PayPal — stablecoins are viewed by some market observers as the crypto industry’s new growth engine, even earning the moniker of a “ChatGPT moment.”

However, returning to the data itself, the strength of this judgment requires further observation.

Data-Driven Growth Metrics

According to data from CryptoRank, DeFiLlama, and CoinMarketCap, since the crypto market peak in September 2025, the market share of stablecoins within the broader crypto market has risen significantly. Total stablecoin supply increased from approximately $286 billion to roughly $316 billion, representing a growth of about 10.6%. Over the same period, the total crypto market capitalization dropped from $4.21 trillion to about $2.10 trillion, a decline of roughly 50%.

The net increase in stablecoin supply was approximately $30.4 billion, with USDT contributing around $18 billion, accounting for 59%–60% of the growth. Together, USDT and USDC still command approximately 83% of the total stablecoin supply. By mid-2026, the total stablecoin market cap stabilized at around $315 billion; USDT’s market cap stood at roughly $186 billion (about 59% market share), while USDC’s market cap ranged between $75 billion and $79 billion (about 25% share). The market shares of other stablecoins like USDe, PYUSD, and USDS have gradually increased, but their absolute scale remains limited.

In 2025, full-year stablecoin supply grew by about 49%, adding over $100 billion, but growth slowed noticeably entering 2026. USDT supply grew by roughly 36% in 2025, while USDC grew by about 73%. Adjusted transaction volumes for stablecoins saw significant growth in 2025, reaching the multi-trillion-dollar scale for the year. This volume was concentrated primarily on the Ethereum and Tron blockchains, driven by exchange settlements and DeFi liquidity.

In terms of on-chain distribution, Tron and Ethereum are the primary platforms for stablecoin activity. Tron holds a prominent position in retail and micro-transfers, while Ethereum sees higher activity in DeFi and institutional contexts. The market shares of Layer 2 networks and emerging chains like Solana, Base, and Arbitrum have risen. Stablecoins account for a significant proportion of overall on-chain transaction volume, frequently utilized for CEX/DEX liquidity provision and asset transfers.

The number of active addresses has increased, but this growth largely reflects the conversion of existing users and activity within specific market use cases. Sources of growth for various stablecoins include new minting and cross-chain migration, with USDC taking a higher share in compliance-driven migrations.

Using the September 2025 crypto market peak as a starting point, total stablecoin supply grew by about 10.6% by mid-2026; however, extending the observation window back to early 2025 reveals a cumulative growth of over 50%. Despite the continually rising systemic importance of stablecoins, their current metrics — in terms of new user scale, supply expansion velocity, and the ability to create entirely new demand — still struggle to exhibit the exponential diffusion characteristics seen during the early stages of ChatGPT.

Stablecoins Remain Digital Expressions of USD Assets

The core mechanism of mainstream stablecoins is 1:1 reserve backing, primarily supported by highly liquid assets such as US dollar cash, short-term US Treasuries, bank deposits, repurchase agreements, and government money market funds. USDT is issued by Tether, and USDC by Circle, together dominating the market. The GENIUS Act explicitly requires issuers to maintain 100% reserves and regularly disclose their reserve composition, including specific asset types, custodians, and allocations.

Reserve assets must be held in bankruptcy-remote accounts, and issuers are prohibited from paying interest to stablecoin holders. As a publicly traded company, Circle undergoes more frequent USDC reserve audits and disclosures, involving deep cooperation with traditional banks and custodians. Other stablecoins like PYUSD, supported by PayPal, follow a similarly structured USD peg.

Mainstream stablecoins are essentially on-chain tokenized dollar liabilities backed by assets like USD cash and short-term Treasuries. Their core function is migrating USD settlement pathways onto blockchain networks, rather than creating a new layer of monetary credit.

From a broader macro-financial perspective, stablecoins are not an independent monetary layer, but rather a “settlement layer extension” embedded within the existing US dollar system. If the USD system is divided into three tiers — the Federal Reserve’s base money (M0), deposit money in the commercial banking system (M1/M2), and short-term interest-bearing assets in global USD financial markets — stablecoins function more like a “digital settlement interface” positioned between the second and third tiers.

Their essential function is not to expand the credit-creation capacity of the US dollar, but to repackage the settlement pathways of the dollar in global circulation. On one hand, they recycle credit risk back to traditional banks and the US Treasury system via the 100% reserve mechanism; on the other hand, they migrate payments and clearing from traditional bank account systems to on-chain address systems. Looking at the demand structure, stablecoins currently primarily absorb pre-existing needs for payments, remittances, settlements, and USD value storage. Their expansion largely reflects the migration of financial activities from traditional accounts to the blockchain, rather than the generation of entirely new currency use cases.

Therefore, this growth trajectory more closely resembles the penetration process of a financial infrastructure upgrade rather than the demand expansion of a consumer product. Consequently, their growth logic differs fundamentally from that of ChatGPT: the former relies primarily on the digital migration of existing demand, while the latter created massive, previously non-existent user demand through a novel product format.

The Three-Tier Structure of Stablecoins

Furthermore, analyzing actual usage patterns reveals that stablecoins are exhibiting a distinct tiered structure. This structure dictates that their growth leans toward expanding within existing markets rather than explosive, single-layer penetration. Currently, the market can be broadly divided into three main tiers: the retail usage tier, the institutional compliance tier, and the DeFi and synthetic asset tier.

• The Retail Usage Tier: Centered around USDT, this tier forms a high-frequency circulation network on low-cost chains like Tron. Typical use cases include P2P transfers, over-the-counter (OTC) trading, cross-border remittances, and USD substitution demand in emerging markets. Here, stablecoins act more like “digital cash,” emphasizing accessibility and liquidity over compliance or yield attributes. Consequently, penetration is high in regions with severe foreign exchange volatility, such as Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey. Overall, however, it remains primarily a digital substitution for existing financial needs.
• The Institutional Compliance Tier: Represented primarily by USDC, this tier integrates into mainstream financial infrastructure via platforms like Circle, Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, and traditional banking systems. Its core feature is significantly strengthened compliance constraints — including reserve disclosures, audit mechanisms, and the deep embedding of AML/KYC frameworks — making it more akin to an on-chain extension of the traditional USD clearing system. In this tier, stablecoins are mainly used for corporate payments, cross-border settlements, and treasury management.
• The DeFi and Synthetic Asset Tier: Here, the form of stablecoins is more diverse, represented by USDe (Ethena), DAI, and various yield-bearing stablecoins. The core logic is no longer purely maintaining a 1:1 peg, but generating yield through collateral structures or strategic asset allocation, gradually evolving these assets into “on-chain money market funds.” While DAI’s relative importance has declined, synthetic stablecoins like USDe have expanded rapidly in certain DeFi strategies. However, this sector remains highly dependent on on-chain yield environments and interest rate cycles, resulting in notably higher volatility and structural complexity.

These three tiers are not entirely siloed but represent divergent use cases built around the same USD-pegged system. Precisely because of this tiered structure, the growth path of stablecoins resembles a “distributed expansion of financial functions” rather than the exponential expansion of a single network.

Simultaneously, this tiered structure reinforces distribution constraints. Different tiers rely on disparate gateways — exchanges, on-chain wallets, and compliant financial portals (like PayPal and Stripe) — failing to form a unified, system-level entry point. By contrast, a GPT-like growth trajectory relies on an extremely low-friction, unified distribution interface, enabling rapid user scaling across all demographics. Because stablecoin entry points are fragmented, liquidity is siloed across chains, and access varies by regulatory jurisdiction, using them still requires proactively navigating specific financial or on-chain environments. Thus, the sector more closely resembles the “parallel expansion of multi-channel financial infrastructure” rather than a network effect explosion driven by a single product.

Institutional Participation Increases Alongside Enhanced Regulation

Regulatory progress was highly significant in 2025. The GENIUS Act established a federal regulatory framework, restricting the issuance of payment stablecoins to “permitted issuers.” Issuers must maintain 1:1 reserves, undergo strict AML, KYC, and OFAC sanctions compliance reviews, and comply with Bank Secrecy Act requirements as “financial institutions.”

The GENIUS Act requires reserves to be strictly limited to highly liquid, government-related assets, prohibits algorithmic stablecoins from being issued as payment stablecoins under this framework, and strengthens anti-money laundering monitoring capabilities. Large issuers (over $50 billion in scale) must submit audited annual financial statements. Following Circle’s IPO, transparency requirements were further tightened, mandating monthly reserve disclosures reviewed by registered public accounting firms.

The FDIC approved relevant application procedures, allowing eligible bank subsidiaries to issue stablecoins. The GENIUS Act provides clear pathways for state and federal issuers while encouraging institutional participation in reserve management and product development. When payment giants like Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe integrate stablecoin settlement networks, they must meet corresponding compliance standards, including AML monitoring and consumer protection clauses.

The GENIUS Act also specifies crucial details such as reserve asset composition limits, bankruptcy-remoteness mechanisms, and a dual-track state and federal licensing structure. With the implementation of the GENIUS Act, regulatory requirements for stablecoin issuers regarding reserves, audits, AML, and KYC have synchronized and increased, further strengthening ties with traditional payment systems. Compliant issuers like USDC have clearly benefited in institutional scenarios.

Growth Remains Primarily Driven by Internal Crypto Demand

Current stablecoin applications remain heavily concentrated in exchange settlements, DeFi liquidity, cross-border payments, and USD substitution in certain emerging markets. Most of these demands are still closely tied to crypto market trading activities.

In exchange settlements, stablecoins serve as the primary pricing and hedging tools. USDT transfers on the Tron network are highly active in retail scenarios. In DeFi protocols, USDC and USDT provide foundational liquidity for AMM pools, lending, and derivatives, with Layer 2 scaling significantly reducing fees.

In cross-border payment scenarios, stablecoins support 24/7 instant, low-cost transfers, utilized by enterprises for supplier payments, payroll, and international settlements. While real-world B2B payment volumes grew in 2025, their overall share remains limited.

Specific emerging market scenarios include:

• Argentina: Under a high-inflation environment, residents convert salaries into USDT/USDC for savings and daily payments, driving high stablecoin utilization.
• Nigeria: Substantial stablecoin trading volumes are used for remittances, import financing, P2P payments, and hedging against local currency volatility.
• Turkey: Stablecoin purchases account for a notable percentage of GDP, heavily used for cross-border payments and wealth preservation, representing a significant portion of fiat-to-crypto exchange on-ramps.
• Southeast Asia & Latin America: Used heavily for overseas labor remittances (e.g., the Philippines) as an alternative option during local currency volatility. In Latin America, an increasing number of institutions are adopting stablecoins to process cross-border payments.

In these scenarios, the growth of stablecoin trading volume remains closely correlated with crypto market fervor and the performance of mainstream assets like Bitcoin. Adjusted transaction volume growth in 2025 largely tracked the broader market cycle.

Furthermore, the expansion capacity of stablecoins is fundamentally limited by their “distribution channel structure,” which ultimately determines whether they can achieve a GPT-like network effect. Currently, primary gateways remain concentrated in crypto exchanges, on-chain wallets, and a few select fintech platforms. In contrast, the ChatGPT-style boom relied on frictionless distribution paths — web browsers, default mobile interfaces, and operating system-level integrations. While stablecoins are increasingly embedding themselves in cross-border payments, they have not yet established a position akin to a “system-level default monetary interface.”

Conclusion: Market Structure Under the Regulatory Framework

The GENIUS Act dictates that reserves must be limited to highly liquid, government-related assets, while simultaneously enhancing anti-money laundering monitoring capabilities. Compliant issuers like Circle benefit from institutional preferences, leading to faster growth for USDC in institutional payments and DeFi contexts; meanwhile, USDT continues to dominate in retail and emerging markets. Market concentration remains high, with the combined market share of USDT and USDC consistently staying above 80%.

By mid-2026, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $310 billion. Compared to the rapid expansion phase in 2025, market growth has begun to reflect inventory optimization, compliance-driven migration, and institutional capital inflows, rather than relying solely on new issuance.

This does not mean stablecoins lack long-term value. On the contrary, their significance likely lies in fundamentally improving the settlement efficiency of the global US dollar system, expanding the dollar’s accessibility within digital networks, and driving upgrades in global financial infrastructure. However, infrastructure-driven growth and consumer-product growth generally follow entirely different trajectories: the former typically develops through slow, foundational penetration and sustained expansion, while the latter is prone to exponential user explosions.

Based on current data, stablecoins have solidified their position as one of the most critical infrastructures in the crypto market, and their scope of application continues to widen. Yet, supply growth, market structure, and application scenarios all indicate that they currently function primarily as tools for payments, settlements, and liquidity.

To date, the data more strongly supports the conclusion that stablecoins are evolving into a crucial on-chain settlement infrastructure for the US dollar financial system. However, there is not yet sufficient evidence to demonstrate that they possess the capacity to create massive new demand — like ChatGPT did — nor have they formed an exponential growth curve that is clearly independent of standard crypto market cycles.

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