这是 时事通讯“Daybook”的摘录。
加密货币市场已经企稳，截至 7 月 5 日当周，比特币 BTC$63,487.02 上涨近 7%，为 3 月份以来的最佳表现。
推动力来自通胀盈亏平衡点，它通过将常规政府债券与通胀保值债券进行比较来衡量市场对未来价格上涨的预期。两年盈亏平衡点已跌破 2%（查看每日信号），这是美联储的通胀目标。最近几周，长期盈亏平衡点也大幅下降。
值得注意的是，影响通胀的两年盈亏平衡率和 WTI 油价均已跌至 2 月底伊朗战争爆发前的水平。
这导致一些观察家对通胀担忧、美联储加息押注以及美元走强提出质疑。看涨头寸不平衡，容易受到突然平仓的影响，这可能会给美元指数（DXY）带来压力。这种快速调整可能会在 7 月 14 日发生，届时美国将公布 6 月份消费者价格指数。
布鲁金斯学会高级研究员、国际金融研究所前首席经济学家罗宾·布鲁克斯在一份报告中表示，“到那时，油价下跌带来的通缩冲动应该提醒所有人，美联储不会加息，而且如果有的话，下一步行动将是降息。”
如果该货币的强势受到质疑，那么比特币进一步上涨的障碍看起来也会更弱。众所周知，两者呈负相关。
然而，一些观察家呼吁谨慎行事，称市场高估了油价对通胀的影响。他们表示，价格压力加大现在是一个结构性问题。
YCC Macro在X上表示：“美联储不能仅仅因为汽油价格走低就宣布胜利。粘性服务业通胀正是政策制定者可能在更长时间内维持较高利率的原因，即使总体CPI继续放缓。”
YCC Macro 补充道，押注于激进宽松政策的市场可能低估了潜在通胀的持续程度。保持警惕！
什么是趋势
Coinbase AI 在开赛前推送世界杯结果后招致强烈反对（）：Coinbase 向用户发送了一条虚假的“突发新闻”警报，称挪威足球队在世界杯淘汰赛中以 3-2 击败巴西，比赛甚至还没有开始。
Vitalik Buterin 表示，以太坊正在准备自合并以来“最大规模的重建”（）：修订后的以太坊路线图详细说明了多年改革将如何取代其协议的几乎所有主要部分，其中量子抗性和隐私性将成为优先事项。
由于投资者期待联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议纪要，美国国债收益率小幅走低 (CNBC)：美国国债收益率周一下跌，因为投资者期待本周晚些时候公布的最新联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议纪要和北约峰会。
OPEC+ 计划 8 月增产后，全球股市涨跌互现，油价下跌：亚洲市场回落后，欧洲股市周一上涨，美国期货在 7 月 4 日周末后华尔街开盘前上涨。随着OPEC+成员国同意再次增产，油价进一步下跌。
今天的信号
美国两年盈亏平衡通胀。 （卢卡斯·埃奎姆/彭博社）
美国两年盈亏平衡通胀率，即金融市场对两年内经济价格压力的预期，自2024年以来首次降至2%以下。
市场实质上是在说通胀将在两年内降至美联储目标以下，这削弱了美国加息的理由。
美洲加密日记
相关资产
比特币$63,487.02
2.88%
This is an excerpt from newsletter 'Daybook.'
The crypto market has stabilized, with bitcoin BTC$63,487.02 rising nearly 7% in the week ended July 5, its best performance since March.
The impetus comes from inflation breakevens, which measure the market's expectations of future price increases by comparing regular government bonds to inflation-protected ones. The two-year breakeven has dropped below 2% (check the Daily Signal), which is the Fed's target for inflation. The longer-term breakevens have also dropped sharply in recent weeks.
Notably, both the two-year breakeven rate and WTI oil prices, which influence inflation, have slipped to levels last seen before the onset of the Iran war in late February.
This is leading some observers to question inflation concerns, Fed interest-rate-hike bets and the dollar's strength. Bullish positioning is lopsided and vulnerable to sudden unwinding that could put the Dollar Index (DXY) under pressure. Such a snap adjustment could happen on July 14, when the U.S. reports the consumer price index for June.
"That’s when the deflationary impulse from falling oil prices should remind everyone that the Fed isn’t going to hike and that - if anything - the next move will be a cut," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said in a report.
If the currency's strength is under question, then the barrier to bitcoin rising further also looks weaker. The two are known to be inversely correlated.
Some observers, however, are calling for caution, saying the market is overestimating the impact of oil prices on inflation. Elevated price pressures, they say, are now a structural issue.
"The Fed can't declare victory simply because gasoline prices move lower. Sticky service-sector inflation is exactly why policymakers are likely to keep rates higher for longer, even if headline CPI continues moderating," YCC Macro said on X.
Markets betting on aggressive easing may be underestimating how persistent underlying inflation really is," YCC Macro added. Stay alert!
What’s trending
Coinbase AI draws backlash after pushing World Cup result before kickoff (): Coinbase sent users a false “breaking news” alert saying Norway's soccer team beat Brazil 3-2 in a World Cup knockout match before the game had even started.
Vitalik Buterin says Ethereum is preparing its 'biggest rebuild' since the Merge (): A revised Ethereum roadmap details how the multiyear overhaul would replace nearly every major part of its protocol, with quantum resistance and privacy moving up the priority list.
Treasury yields edge lower as investors look ahead to FOMC meeting minutes (CNBC): U.S. Treasury yields fell Monday as investors looked ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes due later in the week and the NATO Summit.
Global shares are mixed and oil slips after OPEC+ plans August output hike (AP): European shares advanced Monday after a retreat in Asian markets, and U.S. futures climbed ahead of Wall Street’s opening following the 4th of July weekend. Oil prices slipped further as OPEC+ members agreed to raise output again.
Today’s signal
U.S. two-year breakeven inflation. (Lukas Ekwueme/Bloomberg)
The U.S. two-year breakeven inflation rate, the financial market's expectations of price pressure in the economy over two years, has dropped below 2% for the first time since 2024.
The market is essentially saying that inflation will drop below the Fed's target in two years, which dents the case for U.S. interest-rate increases.
Crypto Daybook Americas
Related Assets
Bitcoin$63,487.02
2.88%
