By Tony Capaccio (Bloomberg) — American forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessel transits in and out of the Strait of Hormuz in the last two months, according to an official familiar with US Central Command operations, a figure that’s higher than private sector estimates that rely mostly on ship transponders.
Military analysts measured the number of ship passages since a ceasefire took effect between the US and Iran on April 8 using continual air, sea and space surveillance deployed as part of the war against Iran, the official said, asking not to be identified to discuss data that hasn’t been made public. The bulk of the vessels are large cargo and container ships and the figure doesn’t count smaller craft, such as traditional dhows, they added.
The figure is still far below the more than 100 ships passing daily through the vital waterway for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf before President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran in late February, which effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz and sent global energy prices soaring.
But the new US tally suggests commercial traffic in the strait has been at least slightly busier than previously believed. A Bloomberg tally of ship-tracking data using transponders counts just over 650 transits since April 8 — 402 outbound and about 260 inbound.
The US count likely reflects — at least in part — the rising number of so-called dark transits ships are making with transponders turned off to help avoid detection by Iran, as US forces attempt to get traffic moving again amid a rising outcry about the worsening impact of the strait’s closure on the global economy.
Asked on Friday how much oil was getting out of Hormuz, Trump replied: “A lot.”
“I don’t want to say how many, but a lot,” the president told reporters traveling aboard Air Force One. “A lot of oil is coming into the world that people don’t even know about. And that’s why it’s at $97 a barrel instead of $300 a barrel.”
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