原文：A Year On From Liberation Day, Trump's Tariffs Have Done 'Significant Damage' To The U.S. Economy, Says Moody's Chief Economist
在谈到解放日关税的影响时，经济学家现在有一年多的数据可供选择。虽然有些人可能认为关税所产生的收入改变了经济的游戏规则，但其他人则指出支付关税的人付出了成本。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克赞迪担心美国消费者的健康。 He previously told Fortune that—with the exception of job losses—a significant portion of U.S. families are effectively living in a recession.
关税并没有帮助他们的命运。赞迪在昨天的一份报告中表示，这些数据是“决定性的”：“关税对经济造成了重大损害，”他写道。
“Since that day, job growth has come to a standstill, with only the non-traded healthcare industry adding meaningfully to payrolls,” Zandi added. “Also, since that day, inflation has accelerated, with the consumer expenditure deflator increasing at a 3% year-over-year pace, up from 2.5% before the tariffs and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.”
Zandi’s take counters arguments from the likes of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who believes tariffs are the “dog that didn’t bark,” and that supply-side shocks don’t cause inflation, only temporary price moves in narrow markets—which the Fed should be encouraged to look through.
美国银行首席美国经济学家阿迪亚·巴韦（Aditya Bhave）在上个月末的一份报告中写道，“我们不同意”这一观点。 “Supply shocks are inflationary because they shift the aggregate supply curve upward. Consumers respond by spending less in real terms and/or saving less. Indeed, since Liberation Day, real consumer spending has slowed, the saving rate has declined and y/y headline PCE inflation has increased by more than 40 [basis points].”
Setting the consumer impact aside (albeit a major factor in the health of the U.S. economy), it’s hard to ignore the impact tariffs have had on the bottom line for the Treasury’s balance sheet.整个日历年