专注于比特币的宏观经济学家 Lyn Alden 表示,随着 Strategy 出售 3,588 BTC,BTC 必须保持独立,同时警告与 STRC 相关的杠杆风险。 专注于比特币的宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登 (Lyn Alden) 表示,比特币正面临迄今为止最疲软的情绪周期,他表示,随着 Strategy 本周早些时候披露了 2.16 亿美元的比特币销售,比特币必须独立发展。 奥尔登在周二接受记者兼比特币教育家 Natalie Brunell 采访时表示:“我认为没有什么可以拯救比特币。”他表示,该资产的长期成功必须来自其自身的基本面,而不是外部催化剂。 奥尔登表示:“这种资产必须依靠自身的优点生存下来。”他指出,比特币的基本属性是一种流动的、无需许可的存储和发送价值的方式,而不是依赖新的需求来源。 她发表上述言论之际,机构采用和企业财务策略已成为比特币最新市场周期的特征。周一,Strategy 的每周 8-K 文件披露,其出售了 3,588 比特币。 比特币情绪跌至周期低点
奥尔登表示,当前的低迷感觉与 2022 年的熊市不同,当时比特币跌至 16,000 美元,但比特币投资者的热情仍然相对强劲。 奥尔登表示:“这是我个人所看到的对比特币的最低情绪。”他指出,这是由于叙事逐渐淡化、市场周期更加由企业驱动以及投资者感到失望等因素综合作用的结果。 奥尔登表示,她的基本情况是比特币今年不会再创历史新高,尽管她承认该资产的波动性为大幅上涨留下了空间。 奥尔登表示,“我希望看到的基本情况只是缺乏新的底部”,而且技术面显示“持平上升,而不是持平下降”。 STRC 发现了需求,但杠杆仍然是一个风险 全球最大的企业比特币持有者 Michael Saylor’s Strategy 在经济低迷时期受到了更严格的审查,因为投资者重新评估了围绕其比特币支持的资本结构和优先股产品的风险。
奥尔登表示,Strategy 的 STRC 优先股对于那些希望了解该公司比特币战略但又不想直接持有该资产或承担比特币全部波动性的投资者来说可以发挥作用。 资料来源:马修·西格尔 她指出,STRC 已成为市场上最大的首选证券,但警告说,收益较高的 BTC 相关产品可以鼓励投资者采用额外的杠杆。 相关:Grayscale 表示,Strategy 的比特币销售可能会给 BTC 带来“持久的底部” 她补充说,Strategy 最近采取的重建储备覆盖率和引入额外保障措施的措施是对市场压力的合理反应,尽管该产品的长期表现仍然取决于比特币的价格走势。 奥尔登反驳了围绕比特币变革的紧迫性 奥尔登还讨论了比特币改进提案 110 (BIP-110),该提案旨在通过限制数据密集型交易(包括用于存储图像的交易)来减少网络垃圾邮件。 奥尔登表示,她总体上对迅速改变比特币规则的努力持谨慎态度,并警告说,一些提议可能会使网络变得更加复杂或影响其现有的保障措施。 资料来源:埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯
她表示,她将分析支持和反对协议变更的技术论据,但批评了一些提案向公众提出的方式。奥尔登认为,将协议变更视为比特币的“生存问题”夸大了风险,并称这种做法是“不正确的营销”。 杂志:比特币在这个周期已经触底了吗?分析师表示“还没有”
Bitcoin-focused macroeconomist Lyn Alden said BTC must stand on its own as Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, while warning about leverage risks tied to STRC.
Bitcoin is facing its weakest sentiment cycle yet, according to Lyn Alden, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomist who said the asset must stand on its own as Strategy disclosed a $216 million Bitcoin sale earlier this week.
“I don’t think there’s anything coming to save Bitcoin,” Alden said in a Tuesday interview with journalist and Bitcoin educator Natalie Brunell, saying the asset's long-term success must come from its own fundamentals rather than external catalysts.
“The asset just has to survive on its own merits,” Alden said, pointing to Bitcoin’s underlying properties as a liquid, permissionless way to store and send value, instead of relying on a new source of demand.
Her comments come as institutional adoption and corporate treasury strategies have become features of Bitcoin's latest market cycle. On Monday, Strategy's weekly 8-K filing disclosed that it sold 3,588 BTC.
Bitcoin sentiment falls to a cycle low
Alden said the current downturn feels different from the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin dropped to as low as $16,000 but enthusiasm among Bitcoin investors remained relatively strong.
“This is the lowest sentiment that I’ve personally seen on Bitcoin,” Alden said, pointing to a combination of fading narratives, a more corporate-driven market cycle and disappointment among investors.
Alden said her base case is that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high this year, though she acknowledged that the asset’s volatility leaves room for a sharp move higher.
“The base case that I would hope to see is just a lack of new bottoms in place” and a technical picture that points “flat to up rather than flat to down,” Alden said.
STRC found demand, but leverage remains a risk
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has come under increased scrutiny during the downturn as investors reassess the risks around its Bitcoin-backed capital structure and preferred stock products.
Alden said Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has a role for investors who want exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding the asset directly or taking on Bitcoin’s full volatility.
Source: Matthew Sigel
She noted that STRC has become the biggest preferred security in the market, but warned that higher-yielding BTC-linked products can encourage investors to take on additional leverage.
Related: Strategy’s Bitcoin sale may give BTC a ‘durable bottom,’ Grayscale says
She added that Strategy’s recent steps to rebuild its reserve coverage and introduce additional safeguards were reasonable responses to the market stress, though the long-term performance of the product still depends on Bitcoin’s price action.
Alden pushes back on urgency around Bitcoin changes
Alden also discussed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110), which aims to reduce network spam by limiting data-heavy transactions, including those used to store images.
Alden said she is generally cautious about efforts to change Bitcoin’s rules quickly, warning that some proposals could make the network more complex or affect its existing safeguards.
Source: Eric Balchunas
She said she would analyze the technical arguments for and against protocol changes, but criticized the way some proposals are presented to the public. Alden argued that framing a protocol change as an “existential issue” for Bitcoin exaggerates the stakes, calling that approach “incorrect marketing.”
Magazine: Has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle? Analysts say 'not yet'