一位前日本央行官员警告称，随着日元继续走弱，央行今年可能会迅速提高基准利率，可能升至 2% 以上。 日本央行加快收紧政策可能会支撑日元，从而可能令风险资产承压。 比特币和日元已经形成了很强的正相关性。 随着日元贬值，日本央行(BOJ)今年可能会迅速提高基准利率，最终将其推至2%以上。 据彭博社报道，这是前日本央行官员、东京大学经济学教授渡边勉 (Tsutomu Watanabe) 发出的最新警告，他于 1999 年离开日本央行。
根据数据源TradingView的数据，截至目前，官方利率为1%，这是近期加息的结果，10年期基准政府债券收益率徘徊在2.8%以上，为至少三十年来的最高水平。 与此同时，尽管近期加息且日本政府债券收益率走强，日元仍继续下滑。自 2021 年初以来，人民币兑美元已贬值 60%，至 162.36 美元，对于全球交易量最大的货币之一而言，人民币汇率大幅下跌。此外，今年迄今已下跌 3%。 日本央行更快的潜在加息可能会为日元汇率奠定底线，或者有可能推高日元汇率。接下来的问题是，这是否会对比特币 BTC$62,890.39 有利还是不利。 长期以来市场上流传的一种理论是，日元持续上涨可能会引发对发达国家政府债券、科技股甚至加密货币的看涨押注的平仓，而这些押注据称是由多年来日元廉价借贷提供资金的。在这种情况下，包括加密货币在内的风险资产可能会下跌。 但最近日元和比特币之间的强烈正相关性削弱了这一理论。两者兑美元汇率均同步下跌。
此外，几位经济学家认为，快速加息可能会使日本本已脆弱的财政状况进一步恶化。 总而言之，这是一个复杂的情况。 日本比特币新闻 相关资产 比特币$62,890.39 0.089%
A former Bank of Japan official warns the central bank may raise its benchmark interest rate rapidly this year, potentially to above 2%, as the yen continues to weaken.
Faster BOJ tightening could support the yen, potentially weighing over risk assets.
BTC and yen have developed a strong positive correlation.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise its benchmark interest rate rapidly this year, as the yen slides, eventually pushing it above 2%.
That's the latest warning from a former Bank of Japan official Tsutomu Watanabe, an economics professor at the University of Tokyo who left the central bank in 1999, according to Bloomberg.
As of now, the official rate is at 1%, the result of recent hikes, and the 10-year benchmark government bond yield hovers above 2.8%, the highest in at least three decades, according to data source TradingView.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to slide despite recent hikes and hardening Japanese government bond yields. It has depreciated by 60% to 162.36 per U.S. dollar since early 2021, a major decline for one of the most traded currencies in the world. Also, it has dropped 3% so far this year.
Faster potential interest rate hikes by the BOJ may put a floor under the yen, or potentially lift it higher. The question then is whether it will help bitcoin BTC$62,890.39 or work against it.
One theory floating around in markets since long is that a sustained rally in yen could trigger an unwinding of bullish bets across advanced nation government bonds, tech stocks and even crypto that have been supposedly funded by years of cheap borrowing in yen. In such a case, risk assets, including crypto may fall.
But undercutting that theory in recent times is the strong positive correlation between the yen and BTC. Both have been falling against the dollar in lockstep.
Further, rapid rate hikes might worsen Japan's already fragile fiscal position, an argument made by several economists.
All in all, it's a complex situation.
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