比特币历史性的四年减半周期仍在创造新高，但每次牛市峰值的市盈率都比上一次要小。 考虑到峰峰值回报率的萎缩和资产规模的不断扩大，预测比特币到 2029 年下一个周期峰值将达到 30 万至 50 万美元的预测可能过于乐观。 随着机构参与、ETF和复杂的衍生品深化市场，比特币规模变得更大、流动性更强且波动性更小，这表明抛物线“登月”反弹的时代可能已经结束。
加密货币分析师已经在研究比特币 BTC$64,126.03 在下一个周期（预计将于今年晚些时候开始）中可以上涨到多高，雄心勃勃的目标在 300,000 美元到 500,000 美元之间。 但一个重要的数据点与这些预测相反，表明收益可能比以往任何时候都更加可衡量。 与黄金或股票不同，比特币往往以明显的四年周期为中心，以采矿奖励减半为中心，这一事件每四年将每个区块生产的新比特币数量减半。可以将其视为货币供应增长率按计划减少 50%。 第一次减半发生在 2012 年，第五次减半预计在 2028 年 4 月进行。过去，价格往往会在减半前大约 18 个月触底并开始新的牛市。同样的牛市在减半后约 16-18 个月达到顶峰，为长达一年的熊市铺平了道路。这是四年一个周期，下一个周期的峰值预计在 2029 年。 在此背景下，分析师和市场专家一直呼吁未来几年出现大规模牛市。
经验丰富的交易员 Peter Brandt 预计峰值在 300,000 美元至 500,000 美元之间。 Bernstein 分析师 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 预计，由于现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 需求旺盛，到 2029 年价格将达到 50 万美元。 现实检验 然而，虽然四年周期不断创造历史新高，但每一个连续周期的市盈率都明显下降、收益压缩、整体扩张放缓。 随着比特币的成长、成熟并变得更有价值，需要更多的资本来大幅推高其价格。周期高点的记录证明了这一点： 2013 年：266 美元 2017 年：近 20,000 美元（是之前高点的 75 倍） 2021 年：约 69,000 美元（是 2017 年的 3.5 倍） 2025 年：126,000 美元（仅是 2021 年的 1.8 倍） 这意味着牛市正变得更加稳定，收益更加可衡量，而不是登月计划。如果这种趋势持续下去，下一个峰值可能会远远低于预期的 300,000 美元至 500,000 美元水平。 （反弹至 30 万美元或以上需要较 2025 年高点上涨 2 倍以上） 然而，这并不一定是坏消息。
如前所述，资产规模越大，需要更多的资本才能将其推高。随着市场的制度化和不断增加的先进风险管理产品，如比特币ETF、期货、期权、波动性产品、套利基金以及嵌入期权的结构性产品，BTC自然会变得波动性更小，越来越像华尔街。 看多者可能会认为，美联储潜在的全面刺激措施以及美国财政部直接购买比特币作为储备资产可能会起到作用。 然而，即使在 2020 年新冠疫情崩盘后（不仅是在美国，而且在全球范围内）采取大规模财政和货币刺激措施，也只能将 BTC 在该周期中推升至近 70,000 美元，是 2017 年的 3.5 倍，标志着较上一周期放缓。 2025 年的高点伴随着 ETF 流量和有史以来最高的制度化，但只能达到该水平的 1.8 倍。 所有这些都表明比特币正在成熟和成长，而不是崩溃。峰峰登月的日子可能一去不复返了。该资产现在规模庞大、流动性强且制度化，追逐下一个抛物线超级周期的投资者可能需要重新调整。 比特币新闻 相关资产
比特币$64,126.03 0.17%
Bitcoin’s historic four-year halving cycles are still producing new highs, but each bull market peak has delivered smaller multiples than the last.
Forecasts calling for bitcoin to reach $300,000 to $500,000 by the next cycle peak in 2029 may be overly optimistic given the shrinking peak-to-peak returns and the asset’s growing size.
As institutional participation, ETFs, and sophisticated derivatives deepen the market, bitcoin is becoming larger, more liquid and less volatile, suggesting the era of parabolic “moonshot” rallies may be over.
Crypto analysts are already looking at how high bitcoin BTC$64,126.03 could rally in the next cycle, expected to begin later this year, with ambitious targets ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.
But one important data point runs counter to those forecasts, suggesting that gains may be more measured than ever.
Unlike gold or stocks, bitcoin tends to move in clear four-year cycles centered on the mining reward halving, an event that halves the amount of new bitcoin produced per block every 4 years. Think of it as a programmed 50% reduction in the growth rate of the money supply.
The first halving happened in 2012, and the fifth one is scheduled for April 2028. In the past, prices have tended to bottom out and begin a new bull run roughly 18 months before the halving. That same bull run then peaks about 16-18 months after the halving, paving the way for a year-long bear market. That's the four-year cycle, and the peak of the next one is expected in 2029.
On the back of this, analysts and market experts have been calling for a massive bull run in the next few years.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates a peak between $300,000 and $500,000. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expect prices to hit $500,000 by 2029, citing booming demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Reality check
However, while the four-year cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, each successive one has seen markedly lower multiples, compressed gains, and slower overall expansion.
As bitcoin grows, matures, and becomes more valuable, it takes significantly more capital to push it meaningfully higher. The track record of cycle highs proves it:
2013: $266
2017: nearly ~$20,000 (75x from previous high)
2021: ~$69,000 (3.5x from 2017)
2025: $126,000 (just 1.8x from 2021)
What this means is that bull runs are getting steadier, with more measured gains rather than moonshots. If this trend continues, the next peak may fall well short of the anticipated $300,000 to $500,000 levels. (A rally to $300,000 or more requires over 2 times the jump from the 2025 high)
This is not necessarily bad news, however.
As noted earlier, the bigger the asset becomes, the more capital is required to move it higher. And with the institutionalization of the market and an ever-increasing array of advanced risk management products, such as bitcoin ETFs, futures, options, volatility products, arbitrage funds, and structured products with embedded options, BTC is naturally becoming less volatile and more Wall Street-like.
Bulls might argue that a potential full-blown Fed stimulus and outright purchases of BTC as a reserve asset by the U.S. Treasury may do the trick.
However, even massive fiscal and monetary stimulus after the 2020 COVID crash – not just in the U.S. but worldwide – could only lift BTC to nearly $70,000 in that cycle, 3.5x from 2017, marking a slowdown from the previous cycle. The 2025 high, which came with ETF flows and the most institutionalization ever, could only muster 1.8 times the level.
All this suggests that bitcoin is maturing and growing, not breaking. The days of peak-to-peak moonshots may be gone for good. The asset is now large, liquid, and institutionalized, and investors chasing the next parabolic supercycle might want to recalibrate.
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