这是 CoinDesk 时事通讯“Daybook”的摘录。
比特币 BTC$63,439.38 在连续六天上涨后于周二下跌，这是自 3 月份以来最长的连续上涨。无论如何，从几个指标的角度来看，这些收益看起来都很脆弱。
最受广泛关注的是 Coinbase Premium，它跟踪美国交易所 Coinbase (COIN) 和 Binance 上比特币价格的差异。根据数据来源 Coinglass 的数据，该指数现已连续 50 天为负值。
这意味着近两个月来，Coinbase 上的 BTC 价格一直低于不在美国运营的币安网。这种差异表明全球最大经济体的需求相对疲软，美国现货交易所交易基金连续八周净流出凸显了这一信息。从历史上看，牛市的特点是 Coinbase 溢价始终为正。
另一个令人担忧的趋势是日本，债券收益率一直在上涨。今天早些时候，10 年期国债升至 30 年高点，推高了美国、英国和德国的借贷成本。持续上涨，尤其是国债收益率的持续上涨，可能会给比特币带来阻力。
分析师表示，虽然季节性因素支持持续复苏，但最重要的是 ETF 流量。
加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 的分析师在与 CoinDesk 分享的一份报告中表示，“在 [BlackRock 的 ETF] IBIT 本身转向持续流入之前，结构性机构出价仍未得到证实。”
总部位于新加坡的加密货币交易公司 QCP Capital 表示，“近期背景似乎具有建设性，特别是如果现货 BTC ETF 在周五之后继续出现资金流入，这标志着在持续一周多的资金流出之后出现了可喜的转变。”
它补充说，本周价格水平果断收复 64,000 美元将进一步提振市场情绪，同时有助于缓解对公开交易的比特币持有者策略 (MSTR) 的担忧。保持警惕！
什么是趋势
攻击者花费 400 万美元通过恶意提案后，BONK 面临 2000 万美元资金流失 (CoinDesk)：BONK DAO 被耗尽 2000 万美元，这是为期一周的计划的结果，攻击者花费约 440 万美元购买该项目的代币以强制通过投票。
伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡商船后油价上涨 (CNBC)：有报道称伊朗向霍尔木兹海峡两艘商船发射导弹后，周二油价上涨略高于 1%。
比特币近期的宏观缓解面临日本利率的挑战（CoinDesk）：日本10年期国债收益率飙升至2.85%的30年高点，挑战了比特币在不到7天内因利率预期变化而获得的8%的提振。
在纳斯达克 100 指数纳入之前，华尔街对 SpaceX 表现出浓厚的兴趣（路透社）：随着券商以看涨观点开始报道，SpaceX (SPCX) 被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数，预计将释放数十亿美元的被动买盘。该公司股价在盘前交易中下跌 1.2%。
今天的信号
USDT 和 USDC 的总市值。 （交易视图）
过去两个月，与美元挂钩的两大稳定币 USDT 和 USDC 的总市值已从 2680 亿美元下降至 2570 亿美元，尽管它们在加密货币总市值中的主导地位基本保持稳定。
这种模式表明加密货币市场出现资本净流出。投资者正在将加密货币出售为稳定币，总的来说，这些稳定币头寸正在被赎回或从链上生态系统中轮换出来，而不是回收回风险资产。
美洲加密日记
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比特币$63,439.38
2.80%
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.'
Bitcoin BTC$63,439.38 fell on Tuesday after chalking out a six-day winning streak, the longest since March. The gains, in any case, looked fragile when viewed through the lens of several indicators.
The most widely followed is the Coinbase Premium, which tracks the difference between bitcoin's price on U.S.-based exchange Coinbase (COIN) and Binance. It has now been negative for fifty straight days, according to data source Coinglass.
That means for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, which doesn't operate in the U.S. The discrepancy is an indicator of relatively weak demand in the world's largest economy, a message underscored by the eight straight weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds. Historically, bull runs have featured consistently positive Coinbase Premiums.
Another concerning trend is seen in Japan, where bond yields just can't stop rising. The 10-year rose to a 30-year high early today, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany. A continued upswing, particularly in Treasury yields, could create a headwind for BTC.
While seasonality supports continued recovery, it's the ETF flows that matter the most, according to analysts.
"Until [BlackRock's ETF] IBIT itself flips back to sustained inflows, the structural institutional bid remains unproven," analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said in a report shared with CoinDesk.
Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that "the near-term backdrop appears constructive, particularly if spot BTC ETFs continue to see inflows after Friday’s, which marked a welcome shift following more than a week of persistent outflows."
It added that a decisive reclaim of the $64,000 price level this week would provide a further boost to market sentiment, while helping ease concerns about the publicly traded bitcoin-holder Strategy (MSTR). Stay alert!
What’s trending
BONK faces $20 million treasury drain after attacker spends $4 million to pass malicious proposal (CoinDesk): BONK DAO was drained of $20 million, the culmination of a week-long scheme in which an attacker spent about $4.4 million buying up the project's tokens to force through a vote.
Oil prices rise after report of Iranian attack on commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz (CNBC): Oil prices rose just over 1% on Tuesday following a report that Iran fired missiles at two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin's recent macro relief faces a challenge from Japanese interest rates (CoinDesk): The 10-year Japanese government bond yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, challenging the 8% boost bitcoin received in fewer than seven days from shifting interest-rate expectations.
Wall Street warms to SpaceX ahead of Nasdaq 100 index inclusion (Reuters): SpaceX's (SPCX) addition to the Nasdaq 100 is expected to unleash billions in passive buying, as brokerages kick off coverage with bullish views. The company's shares are down 1.2% in premarket trading.
Today’s signal
Combined market cap of USDT and USDC. (TradingView)
The combined market cap of the top two dollar‑pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has declined to $257 billion from $268 billion over the past two months, even as their dominance, their share of the total crypto market cap, has held largely steady.
This pattern suggests net capital outflows from the crypto market. Investors are selling crypto into stablecoins, and, on balance, those stablecoin positions are being redeemed or rotated out of the onchain ecosystem rather than recycled back into risk assets.
Crypto Daybook Americas
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Bitcoin$63,439.38
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