SpaceX 入选纳斯达克 100 指数，同时也带来了历史性警告SpaceX's Nasdaq 100 inclusion comes with a historical warning

SpaceX 于 7 月 7 日加入纳斯达克 100 指数，此前该公司进行了一次轰动的 IPO，上市后股价飙升 50%，但股价已较历史高点下跌 28%。

之前备受瞩目的纳斯达克 100 指数新增股票（包括 Palantir 和 Strategy）在其纳入日期前后或之前达到顶峰，这表明指数成分并不总是看涨催化剂。

SpaceX (SPCX) 将于 7 月 7 日正式加入华尔街以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数，此前该公司在 6 月中旬进行了有史以来规模最大的 iIPO 融资 750 亿美元。

在 6 月 12 日 IPO 后的几天里，该股立即飙升至 225 美元，但上周又跌至 162 美元。现在最大的问题是它被纳入纳斯达克指数后会发生什么。

从历史的角度来看，答案并不一定是乐观的。

过去的数据表明，指数纳入通常被视为积极的里程碑，但并不是可靠的看涨信号，尤其是在股票已经经历大幅上涨之后。

这是因为，在许多情况下，投资者的乐观情绪已经高涨并达到顶峰，被动基金购买已在很大程度上得到预期，并且预期已被定价。

纳斯达克 100 指数最近新增的两个最引人注目的股票凸显了这一模式。

软件巨头 Palantir (PLTR) 于 2024 年 12 月 23 日加入该指数，但该股在纳入该指数前后达到顶峰，并在接下来的几周内下跌了约 25%。

持有比特币的最大上市公司Strategy（MSTR）也上演了类似的故事。尽管它于 2024 年 12 月 23 日正式进入纳斯达克 100 指数，但该股在一个月前就已经达到了周期高点，在 11 月份达到了接近 543 美元的峰值，而比特币的交易价格约为 10 万美元。如今，该股交易价格约为 100 美元，较峰值大约回调 80%。

SpaceX 的 IPO 正值人工智能基础设施贸易狂潮的顶峰，当时，由于对人工智能计算的空前需求以及对芯片和高带宽内存 (HBM) 短缺的担忧，半导体和内存股票飙升。

因此，如果以史为鉴，SpaceX 的股票在纳斯达克上市后可能不会一帆风顺。

比特币新闻埃隆·马斯克SpaceX

SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 on July 7 after a blockbuster IPO that surged 50% on debut, but shares have already fallen 28% from their all time high.

Previous high profile Nasdaq 100 additions, including Palantir and Strategy, peaked around or before their inclusion dates, suggesting index membership is not always a bullish catalyst.

SpaceX (SPCX) is set to officially join Wall Street's tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index on July 7 after raising $75 billion in the largest iPO of all time in mid-June.

The stock immediately surged to as high as $225 in the days after the June 12 IPO,only to deflate to $162 last week. Now the big question is what happens after it is included in the Nasdaq index.

The answer is not necessarily bullish when viewed through the lens of history.

Past data suggests that index inclusion, often viewed as a positive milestone, is not a reliable bullish signal, particularly after a stock has already experienced a significant rally.

That's because, in many cases, investor optimism is already elevated and peaked, passive fund buying has largely been anticipated, and expectations are priced in.

The two most notable recent additions to the Nasdaq 100 highlight this pattern.

Palantir (PLTR), the software giant, joined the index on Dec. 23, 2024, but the stock peaked around the time of its inclusion and declined roughly 25% in the weeks that followed.

A similar story played out with Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded company holding bitcoin. Although it officially entered the Nasdaq 100 on Dec. 23, 2024, the stock had already reached its cycle high a month earlier, peaking near $543 in November, while bitcoin was trading around $100,000. Today, the stock trades around $100, roughly an 80% correction from its peak.

SpaceX's IPO came at the peak of the AI infrastructure trade frenzy, when semiconductor and memory stocks were surging amid unprecedented demand for AI compute and concerns over chip and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortages.

So if history is a guide, SpaceX stock may not have smooth sailing after the Nasdaq inclusion.

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