永续合约的清算算法：山寨币牛市的原动力——输家为赢家提供资金的零和交叉补贴游戏原创作者 |丹尼 (@agintender)编译器 |吴区块链Aki Chen原始来源链接：https://x.com/agintender/status/1953092247253336129免责声明：本文为转载文章。读者可以参考原始资料以获取更多信息。如原作者对转载形式有异议，请联系我们，我们将按要求进行修改。转发仅用于信息分享，不构成任何投资建议，也不代表WuBlockchain的观点或立场。2025年的加密牛市可能已经开始，但它的引擎正在以与之前周期截然不同的方式咆哮。如果您仍然通过盯着现货交易量来衡量市场热度，那么您可能只看到了冰山一角。这个周期的主角是永续期货（“perps”）——一个巨大的、高杠杆的、由激烈的多空战斗驱动的玩家对玩家（PvP）竞技场。流动性、叙事和财富效应正在以前所未有的方式重新定义整个市场。我们解释
这就是为什么流动性以前所未有的程度集中在衍生品上，以及——用一个数字例子——短期清算级联如何充当火箭燃料，这是推动资产价格反射性螺旋上升的核心机制。数据聚焦：当尾巴开始摇狗时经验是理论的最佳证明。我们首先用数据来验证一个惊人的事实：永续合约的交易量已经完全让现货市场黯然失色。 交易量比较：根据 TokenInsight 和其他提供商 2025 年第二季度的数据，主要交易所的加密衍生品（主要是永续合约）的交易量通常比现货交易量大 10-15 倍。换句话说，当现货成交量为 100 亿美元时，永续市场可能已经印刷了 100-1500 亿美元。 未平仓合约 (OI)：对于主要企业如
Perpetual Futures’ Liquidation Algorithm: The Prime Mover of the Altcoin Bull Market — a zero-sum, cross-subsidy game where losers fund winners
Original Author | danny (@agintender)
Compiler | WuBlockchain Aki Chen
Original Source Link:
https://x.com/agintender/status/1953092247253336129
Disclaimer: This article is a reposted piece. Readers may refer to the original source for more information. If the original author has any objections to the form of reposting, please contact us and we will make modifications as requested. The repost is intended solely for information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it represent the views or positions of WuBlockchain.
The 2025 crypto bull market may already be underway, but its engine is roaring in a very different way from prior cycles. If you are still gauging market heat by staring at spot trading volumes, you’re likely seeing only the tip of the iceberg. The protagonist of this cycle is perpetual futures (“perps”) — a vast, highly leveraged, player-versus-player (PvP) arena driven by intense long–short combat. Liquidity, narratives, and wealth effects there are redefining the entire market in unprecedented ways.
We explain why liquidity has concentrated in derivatives to an unparalleled degree, and — using a numerical example — how short-liquidation cascades act as rocket fuel, the core mechanism that propels asset prices into reflexive, spiral-higher moves.
I. Data in Focus: When the Tail Starts Wagging the Dog
Empirics are the best proof of theory. We begin with data to validate a striking fact: trading in perpetuals has completely eclipsed the spot market.
Volume comparison: According to Q2 2025 data from TokenInsight and other providers, crypto derivatives (predominantly perpetuals) on major exchanges typically post trading volumes 10–15× larger than spot. In other words, when spot turnover is USD 10 billion, the perps market may already be printing USD 100–150 billion.
Open interest (OI): For majors such as BTC and ETH, as well as popular new listings, outstanding OI often exceeds the corresponding assets’ exchange balances on spot venues. This indicates that most participants’ risk exposure and capital are deployed on the derivatives side.
Funding rate: For much of this bull cycle, funding rates have stayed persistently positive and elevated. This attracts basis traders who short perpetuals while buying equivalent spot to harvest the funding carry. That flow further siphons liquidity out of the spot market and locks it into hedged positions.
Conclusion. The data clearly shows a structural shift in where capital, attention, and strategic gameplay are concentrated. Perpetuals are no longer an adjunct to spot; they have become the core battlefield driving short-term price discovery. The market has flipped from “spot pulling derivatives” to “derivatives’ PvP dynamics forcing spot to follow.”
“At this moment, spot has, astonishingly, become the ‘appendage.’”
II. Core Mechanism Unveiled: How the “Short-Liquidation Rocket” Launches
An apparent anomaly in this cycle is that price advances often do not start with spot buy-side flow; they are set off by forced liquidations on the derivatives side. This is the core mechanism of the current, perps-led bull market.
Illustrative case: “RocketCoin” (RKT)
Setup.
1. RKT is a hyped new project with an extremely thin initial free float: only 1 million tokens (one-tenth) are in the market. (Assume total circulating supply is 10 million.)
2. An exchange lists a USDT-margined perpetual on RKT.
3. Current spot price: $10.
4. Owing to the “short the new coin” mindset, the perps market has accumulated sizeable short interest. Assume that between $11 and $15 there are shorts with USD 10 million notional (300000 RKT) queued for liquidation.
Launch sequence
1. Ignition: A whale or the project team spends a modest amount on spot — say $200000 to buy 20000 RKT — forcibly pushing spot from $10 → $11. Given the thin order book (low free float), the cost of lifting price is minimal.
2. Stage-1 separation (first liquidation wave): When $11 is tagged, the first cohort of shorts with stops/liq triggers at that level is force-closed. Assume this tranche totals $1 million notional.
Liquidation mechanics. Covering shorts requires buy orders. The liquidation engine must immediately execute $1 million of market buys in the RKT perpetual.
Market-maker hedging. Liquidity-providing market makers that sell into those perp buys will, to avoid being net short via the contract, promptly buy equivalent RKT on spot to delta-hedge.
Price feedback.That market-maker spot demand further lifts an already thin spot market — for example, from $11 → $12.
3. Stage-2 ignition (cascading liquidations): When spot reaches $12, a new, larger wave of short positions is liquidated. The sequence repeats exactly as before: perp liquidations → market-maker spot hedging → further spot price appreciation.
4. Achieving orbit: This loop iterates into a positive-feedback liquidation spiral. Each layer of short wipe-outs fuels the next leg higher, taking RKT from $11 toward $15 and beyond. In the process, the initial $200000 “ignition” crowds in millions to tens of millions of dollars of forced/passive buy-side flow.
Conclusion. This is the simplified essence of a “perps bull market”: exploit extremely thin spot liquidity as a leverage fulcrum; manufacture the opposing side in the perpetuals market (i.e., build up substantial short interest); and let the forced-liquidation mechanism act as the engine that propels prices in a rally that appears to rise “out of thin air.” The spot up-move is better understood as the result and outward manifestation of this process, not its cause. (In practice, of course, the path is far from this smooth.)
III. Why this version? Timing, Infrastructure, and Crowd Alignment
This phenomenon was less visible in prior cycles because multiple forces are now acting in concert:
1. Timing (issuer strategy): Projects this cycle commonly adopt low float, high FDV (fully diluted valuation) issuance. This creates a near-perfect set of necessary-and-sufficient conditions to engineer the spot book and lever into the high-gear perps market.
2. Infrastructure (market rails): Perpetuals have matured after years of iteration: seamless execution, deep liquidity, and robust APIs plus market-making programs allow the venue to absorb massive capital and sustain complex games.
3. Crowd alignment (consensus & narratives):
“Short-the-new-coin” paradigm. The hyped “consensus” proactively manufactures a large supply of fuel (short interest).
Get-rich mythos. Tales of traders turning triple- and quadruple-digit returns keep high risk-seeking players flowing in — especially the high-leverage feats by whales on Hyperliquid, which give ample room for the “get-rich-(or-get-wrecked)” narrative to flourish.
Mechanistic allure. Funding-rate carry trades, liquidation sniping, and other advanced tactics have turned a simple long–short duel into a multi-actor, multi-dimensional financial game, further locking in liquidity.
Epilogue
Please don’t take this too literally: calling the current cycle a “perps bull market” is a tongue-in-cheek label for a deeper structural shift. While it indeed tells a story of wealth creation, it is far more a complex financial parable about leverage, liquidity, mechanisms, and human nature than straightforward price discovery.
In this version of the market, spot functions primarily as the hedging instrument and the ultimate expression of price, whereas perpetuals are the core vehicle that fuses narratives, capital, and market mechanics, truly setting the market’s pulse. Understanding — and adapting to — the rule set of this game, one that “uses your liquidations as fuel,” is essential to traversing this cycle.
Finance, or if you prefer, strategic gameplay, works this way — PvP always introduces new experiences. May we carry a lasting sense of humility and respect toward the market.
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