分析师尚未准备好称之为机构对比特币需求的复苏。 截至周五的一周,美国上市的现货比特币交易所交易基金净流入 1.974 亿美元,结束了自 5 月份以来连续八周的每周资金流出。 Farside Investors 的数据显示,本周大部分收益来自 BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF,该基金录得 2.919 亿美元的资金流入。这被 Grayscale 比特币信托 ETF、Fidelity Wise Origin 比特币基金和 ARK 21 Shares 比特币 ETF 的资金流出所抵消。 连续流出的结束可能表明机构对比特币的需求在经历两个月的持续抛售压力后正在复苏。不过,分析人士表示,现在下结论还为时过早。 Monochrome Asset Management 创始人兼首席执行官 Jeff Yew 告诉 :“虽然一周的资金流入并不能定义趋势,但此时机构对下个月美国可能通过《清晰法案》的信心正在增强。”
“这可能是一个早期迹象,表明机构开始在更大的监管确定性之前做好准备,而这往往是长期资本配置者所寻求的。” 与此同时,10x Research 创始人兼首席执行官 Markus Thielen 表示,ETF 和稳定币的资金外流以及 8 月和 9 月的季节性因素仍然是不利因素。 “过去几个月还存在一种模式,即比特币在前半个月表现较好,然后在后半个月进行盘整。即使在比特币上涨 9% 以上之后,由于资金流动仍然明显,ETF 资金流动尚未显着回升,我们认为阻力仍然存在。” 与 5 月 11 日以来投资者撤资的 82.6 亿美元相比,每周流入 1.974 亿美元的资金规模不大。 比特币 ETF 现货净流入总额。资料来源:SoSoValue 上周,Real Vision 首席加密分析师 Jamie Coutts 告诉 ,根据早期技术迹象表明抛售压力正在缓解,比特币可能正在进入熊市的后期阶段。 相关:Strategy 的 Saylor 需要澄清 BTC 的关键信息以说服投资者:渣打银行
“我认为我们正在经历熊市的大部分行动。显然,它还没有结束。但你知道,我认为我们至少正在接近下半年,”库茨说。 其他分析师表示,未来可能还会出现进一步的下行趋势。 资产管理公司 Hilbert Capital 首席投资官 Russell Thompson 上周告诉 ,他认为比特币仍处于下行周期,并可能在今年 10 月左右触及低点。 以太坊 ETF 也打破了连续流出趋势 与此同时,美国上市的现货以太 ETF 也打破了连续八周的下跌,截至周五的一周净流入 8442 万美元,其中贝莱德和富达的以太基金领涨。 与 5 月 11 日以来的 12 亿美元净流出相比,流入量相形见绌。 杂志:比特币在这个周期已经触底了吗?分析师表示“还没有”
Analysts are not yet ready to call it a recovery in institutional demand for Bitcoin.
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a net inflow of $197.4 million in the week ended Friday, snapping an eight-week streak of weekly outflows dating back to May.
Data from Farside Investors shows that most of the week’s gains came from the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which recorded $291.9 million in inflows. This was offset by outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and the ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF.
The end of the outflow streak could suggest institutional demand for Bitcoin is recovering after two months of sustained selling pressure. However, analysts say it’s too early to tell.
“While one week of inflows doesn’t define a trend, it comes at a time when institutional confidence is growing around the potential passage of the CLARITY Act in the US in August next month,” Monochrome Asset Management founder and CEO Jeff Yew told .
“This could be an early indication that institutions are beginning to position ahead of greater regulatory certainty, which is often what long-term capital allocators look for.”
Meanwhile, 10x Research founder and CEO Markus Thielen said ETF and stablecoin outflows and seasonality in August and September remain headwinds.
“There's also been a pattern over the past few months where Bitcoin performs better in the first half of the month, then consolidates in the latter half. Without flows still pronounced and ETF flows yet to meaningfully pick up, even after Bitcoin's 9%+ jump, the headwinds remain in our view.”
The $197.4 million weekly inflow was modest compared with the $8.26 billion investors withdrew since May 11.
Total spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow. Source: SoSoValue
Last week, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts told that Bitcoin could be entering the latter stages of the bear market, based on early technical signs suggesting that selling pressure is easing.
Related: Strategy's Saylor needs clarity in BTC pivot message to convince investors: StanChart
“I think we're getting through most of the bear market action. It's still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we're approaching at least the second half,” Coutts said.
Other analysts say there could be further downsides ahead.
Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at asset manager Hilbert Capital told last week that he believes Bitcoin remains in a downcycle and could hit a low around October this year.
Ether ETFs also break outflow streak
Meanwhile, US-listed spot Ether ETFs also broke their eight-week losing streak, with $84.42 million in net inflows for the week ended Friday, led by BlackRock and Fidelity’s Ether funds.
The inflows paled in comparison with the $1.2 billion in net outflows since May 11.
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