Compass Point 表示,Applied Digital、TeraWulf 和 Cipher Mining 的交易价格低于其签署的人工智能数据中心合同的价值。 该公司认为,投资者应该根据合同租金收入而不是比特币挖矿经济学来评估人工智能基础设施公司的价值。 分析师预计未来两年的项目竣工和租金开始将成为股票表现的主要驱动力。 根据 Compass Point 的一份报告,几家将前比特币采矿场转变为人工智能数据中心的公司的价值可能超出其当前市场估值所暗示的价值,因为投资者低估了他们签署的客户合同的价值。
分析师迈克尔·多诺万(Michael Donovan)和埃德·恩格尔(Ed Engel)开发了一个框架,将已经签订合同的长期人工智能租赁的价值与尚未获得客户的项目区分开来。他们认为,这些公司应该像产生租金收入的房东一样受到重视,而不是像传统的比特币矿工那样,后者的收入取决于加密货币的价格。 为此,Compass Point 在考虑了建设每个设施的剩余成本后,估计了已签署合同的未来租金收入的价值。然后将该数字与每家公司的企业价值进行比较,以估计投资者为未来开发项目支付的费用(如果有)。 该公司表示,采用这种方法,Applied Digital (APLD)、TeraWulf (WULF) 和 Cipher Mining (CIFR) 似乎在其合同业务与当前估值之间存在最大的脱节。 Compass Point 认为,在每种情况下,市场对尚未出租的额外人工智能容量的价值几乎没有(如果有的话),尽管这些项目一旦完成后有可能产生可观的租金收入。
Core Scientific (CORZ) 和 Riot Platforms (RIOT) 因不同原因而脱颖而出。 Compass Point 表示,Core Scientific 的现有合同已在很大程度上反映在其估值中,这意味着进一步的上涨可能取决于签署新客户。与此同时,Riot 更看重未来潜力,而不是当前租赁收入,尽管目前合同产能相对有限,但投资者仍看好其科西卡纳园区和更广泛的人工智能开发管道。 该报告认为,未来两年将是该行业的转折点,因为公司从宣布人工智能基础设施交易转向交付这些交易。随着项目完成、租户入住并开始支付租金,投资者将更清楚地了解这些设施可以产生的经常性现金流。成功执行的公司可以获得与其他创收基础设施资产更加一致的估值。
该行业已经成为市场上最强大的人工智能相关行业之一。在过去的一年里,几家前比特币矿工的股价大幅上涨,因为他们宣布与寻求大量电力和计算能力的超大规模企业和人工智能公司建立合作伙伴关系。尽管如此,随着投资者权衡建设时间表、融资要求和客户签约速度,回报率仍存在差异。 这种更广泛的转变反映了有多少矿业公司正在重新利用拥有丰富电力和现有电力基础设施的场地,以用于人工智能和高性能计算工作负载。与比特币挖矿不同,比特币挖矿的收入会随着加密货币价格的变化而波动,与投资级客户的长期租赁提供了更稳定、更可预测的现金流前景。 Compass Point 表示,在该集团最近出现回调之后,市场可能正在进入一个新阶段,执行比公告更重要。随着设施上线并签署合同开始产生收入,该公司预计投资者将不再那么关注未来潜力,而是更多地关注这些项目带来的现金流。
Compass Point says Applied Digital, TeraWulf and Cipher Mining are trading below the value of their signed AI data center contracts.
The firm argued investors should value AI infrastructure companies based on contracted rental income rather than bitcoin mining economics.
Analysts expect project completions and rent commencements over the next two years to become the main drivers of stock performance.
Several companies transforming former bitcoin mining sites into AI data centers may be worth more than their current market valuations imply because investors are underestimating the value of their signed customer contracts, according to a report from Compass Point.
Analysts Michael Donovan and Ed Engel developed a framework that separates the value of long-term AI leases already under contract from projects that have yet to secure customers. They argue these companies should increasingly be valued like landlords that generate rental income rather than traditional bitcoin miners whose earnings depend on cryptocurrency prices.
To do that, Compass Point estimates the value of future rental income from signed contracts after accounting for the remaining cost of building each facility. It then compares that figure with each company's enterprise value to estimate how much, if any, investors are paying for future development projects.
Using that approach, the firm said Applied Digital (APLD), TeraWulf (WULF) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) appear to offer the largest disconnect between their contracted business and current valuations. In each case, Compass Point argues the market is assigning little, if any, value to additional AI capacity that has yet to be leased, despite the potential for those projects to generate significant rental income once completed.
Core Scientific (CORZ) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) stand out for different reasons. Compass Point said Core Scientific's existing contracts are already largely reflected in its valuation, meaning further upside will likely depend on signing new customers. Riot, meanwhile, is valued more on future potential than current lease income, with investors placing a premium on its Corsicana campus and broader AI development pipeline despite its relatively limited contracted capacity today.
The report argues the next two years will be a turning point for the sector as companies shift from announcing AI infrastructure deals to delivering them. As projects are completed, tenants move in and rent payments begin, investors will have a clearer picture of the recurring cash flow these facilities can generate. Companies that execute successfully could be rewarded with valuations more in line with other income-producing infrastructure assets.
The sector has already become one of the market's strongest AI-related trades. Over the past year, shares of several former bitcoin miners have climbed sharply as they unveiled partnerships with hyperscalers and AI companies looking for large amounts of power and computing capacity. Still, returns have varied as investors weighed construction timelines, financing requirements and the pace of customer signings.
The broader shift reflects how many mining companies are repurposing sites with abundant power and existing electrical infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing workloads. Unlike bitcoin mining, where revenue can swing with cryptocurrency prices, long-term leases with investment-grade customers offer the prospect of steadier, more predictable cash flow.
Following recent pullbacks in the group, Compass Point said the market may be entering a new phase where execution matters more than announcements. As facilities come online and signed contracts begin producing revenue, the firm expects investors to focus less on future potential and more on the cash flow those projects deliver.