这是 时事通讯“Daybook”的摘录。 日本财务大臣片山五月 (Satsuki Katayama) 周五早些时候表示,强化了对比特币 BTC$64,126.03 和黄金等价值储存、供应有限的资产的长期看涨理由,但并非没有潜在的短期痛苦。 片山表示,政府正在积极引导全球最大的养老基金——2万亿美元的政府养老金投资基金(GPIF)大幅增加对包括政府债券在内的国内金融资产的投资。她发表上述言论之际,人们对日本公共债务与 GDP 比率超过 200% 的担忧已将其债券收益率推升至 30 年来的高点,令日元承压。
该计划符合政府的更广泛目标,即重新平衡家庭金融资产,从现金和存款转向股票、共同基金和债券。 这完全符合金融历史学家拉塞尔·纳皮尔的预测,即负债累累的国家将诉诸国家资本主义(或国家主导的资本主义)。也就是说,政府开始迫使国内储蓄机构购买其债券和其他本地资产,以限制收益率并使其低于通胀率。从本质上讲,固定收益回报并不能弥补通货膨胀。 这种隐性税收形式首先被二战后的国家所采用,它使当局能够以低廉的成本为赤字融资,通过温和的通货膨胀逐渐削弱债务负担的实际价值,并避免直接违约或严厉紧缩等相对具有破坏性的选择。 (美国、英国和欧洲等其他负债国家可能很快就会采取同样的做法。) 这样的环境强烈激励人们寻找供应有限、可以保持购买力的资产,例如比特币和黄金。比特币已经证明了自己的实力:以比特币衡量的房价看起来比以美元衡量的便宜得多。
但有一个值得注意的近期风险。 GPIF 持有 9,310 亿美元的外国资产,其中包括 2,321 亿美元的美国国债。资本轻微转移到当地资产可能会引起华尔街的不安,可能会滋生避险情绪,并在市场各个角落进行抛售,包括加密货币。 然而,目前比特币表现强劲,交易价格高于 64,000 美元,关键动能指标表明市场趋势再次看涨。在确认全面的上升趋势之前,价格还需要突破 65,000 美元至 80,000 美元之间的几个关键水平。保持警惕! 什么是趋势 消息人士称,最新版本的《加密货币清晰度法案》最快可能在下周下降:美国参议院可能会在 7 月 13 日之前发布监管加密货币行业的立法草案,参议院可能会在本月底之前采取行动。 比特币 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元的区间成为历史上第三长的盘整():比特币目前交易价格约为 64,000 美元,在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元区间内连续 307 天。这是历史上 10,000 美元价格区间中第三长的时间。
由于交易商关注伊朗战争事态发展,世界股市大多上涨,油价下跌(美联社):周五,在科技相关股票上涨的帮助下,全球股市大多上涨,而随着交易商关注伊朗战争的进展,油价下跌。 随着投资者追踪中东事态发展,美国国债收益率几乎没有变化:尽管近期局势紧张,美国表示将继续与伊朗进行“技术性谈判”,但美国国债收益率保持稳定。 今天的信号 BTC 正在快速接近 50 日均线。 (交易视图) 该图表以烛台形式显示了比特币的价格波动及其 50 天和 200 天简单移动平均线。 随着上涨步伐加快,50 日均线 65,440 美元是值得关注的第一个阻力位。如果突破,焦点将转移到 6 月高点 67,300 美元左右,随后市场开始走低。 如果该水平上有足够多的买家来满足供应,焦点将转向 200 日均线,目前高于 74,000 美元。 美洲加密日记 相关资产 比特币$64,126.03 0.17%
This is an excerpt from newsletter 'Daybook.'
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said something early Friday that strengthened the long-term bullish case for perceived store-of-value, limited-supply assets like bitcoin BTC$64,126.03 and gold, but not without potential short-term pain.
Katayama said the government is actively steering the $2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), the world’s largest pension fund, to substantially increase its investments in domestic financial assets, including government bonds. Her comments come as concern about Japan’s above 200% public debt-to-GDP ratio has lifted its bond yields to three-decade highs, putting the yen under pressure.
The plan aligns with the government's broader objective to rebalance household financial assets away from cash and deposits and toward stocks, mutual funds, and bonds.
This fits squarely into financial historian Russell Napier’s prediction that debt-laden nations will resort to national capitalism (or state-directed capitalism). That is, the government starts forcing domestic savings institutions to buy its bonds and other local assets to cap yields and keep them below inflation. Essentially, fixed-income returns don’t compensate for inflation.
This hidden form of taxation, first used by nations after World War II, allows authorities to finance deficits cheaply, gradually erode the real value of the debt burden through moderate inflation, and avoid the relatively damaging alternatives of outright default or severe austerity. (Other indebted nations like the U.S., U.K. and European countries may do the same soon enough.)
Such an environment creates a strong incentive to seek assets with limited supply that may preserve purchasing power, such as bitcoin and gold. BTC has already proved its mettle: Housing prices measured in bitcoin look far cheaper than in dollars.
But there’s a near-term risk worth noting. The GPIF holds $931 billion in foreign assets, including $232.1 billion in U.S. Treasuries. A slight diversion of capital to local assets may create jitters on Wall Street, potentially breeding risk aversion and selling across all corners of the market, including cryptocurrencies.
For now, however, bitcoin is buoyant, trading above $64,000, with a key momentum indicator signaling a renewed bullish shift in market trend. There are several more key levels between $65,000 and $80,000 that prices need to clear before a full-blown uptrend is confirmed. Stay alert!
What’s trending
Newest version of crypto Clarity Act may drop as soon as next week, sources say (): The U.S. Senate may release a draft of the legislation that would regulate the crypto industry by July 13, and Senate floor action could take place before the end of the month.
Bitcoin's $60,000-$70,000 range becomes third longest consolidation in history (): Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, marking 307 days within the $60,000- $70,000 range. That's the third-longest time in any $10,000 price band in its history.
World shares mostly climb and oil prices slip as traders monitor Iran war developments (AP): World shares mostly advanced on Friday, helped by gains in technology-related shares, while oil prices slipped as traders watched for developments in the Iran war.
Treasury yields little changed as investors track Middle East developments (CNBC): Treasury yields held steady after the U.S. said it will continue “technical talks” with Iran despite the recent flare-up.
Today’s signal
BTC is fast nearing the 50-day average. (TradingView)
The chart shows bitcoin's price swings in candlestick format along with its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
As the upswing gathers pace, the 50-day average at $65,440 is the first resistance level to watch for. A break higher would shift focus to the June high of around $67,300, from where the market turned lower.
If there are enough buyers at that level to meet the supply, the focus will shift to the 200-day average, currently above $74,000.
Crypto Daybook Americas
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