本月前两周，比特币价格涨幅接近 10%，但分析警告称，熊市将从 8 月开始回归。 比特币 (BTC) 迎来了自 2022 年以来最好的 7 月份，但分析警告称，结果可能是坚定的看跌。 比特币 7 月份的涨幅接近两位数，但市场反应与 2022 年相比较。 熊市模式要求下个月在第四季度触底之前恢复下行趋势。 70,000 美元仍然是当前反弹的目标。 分析师认为 BTC 价格在 7 月份剩余时间内“回升”，然后出现逆转 CoinGlass 的数据显示，BTC/美元 7 月份涨幅为 9.5%，创下四年来最高纪录。 比特币的最后一个熊市年份是 2022 年，继上个月大幅下跌 38% 后，7 月底价格上涨了近 17%。然而，八月份发生的事情表明，当时呼吁继续看涨还为时过早。 BTC/美元下跌 14%，9 月份进一步下跌 3%。 这一次，市场参与者对短期价格走强的态度正如预料的那样谨慎。
“到目前为止，BTC 的表现与 7 月份的平均表现基本一致。但当然现在还为时过早，”交易员 Daan Crypto Trades 在周六的 X 帖子中评论了 CoinGlass 的数据。 Daan Crypto Trades 指出，即使考虑到牛市，第三季度也是比特币表现最弱的季度，平均涨幅仅为 6%。 “这与夏季市场缓慢、流动性低和交易量低有关，”他补充道。 BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot).来源：CoinGlass 交易员兼分析师 Rekt Capital 也对季节性感到担忧，他指出 2026 年 BTC 的价格表现与之前的熊市非常接近。 他本周对 X 粉丝表示：“如果历史重演，比特币的情况可能会好转，并在 7 月下半月出现夏季缓解反弹。” BTC/美元一个月图表。资料来源：Rekt Capital/X 据 报道，Rekt Capital 预计 8 月份将抵消本月的涨幅，为今年晚些时候的经典熊市底部做准备。 $70,000 on the radar for July BTC price bounce 与此同时，其他市场参与者正在准备 7 月份剩余时间的目标，其中 70,000 美元变得受欢迎。
相关：比特币重返 6.43 万美元，BTC 价格即将创下三周新高 YouTube 频道 House of Crypto 的创始人 Peter Anthony 在分析日线图时预测道：“未来几天会很有趣。” 另一位交易员着眼于 67,000 美元至 73,000 美元之间的区域做空，他还预测“七月看涨，然后八月看跌，直到第四季度”。 Daan Crypto Trades 总结道：“第四季度是 BTC（双向）真正波动的时候。” “今年也会这样吗？” 早些时候， 指出多个链上指标四年来首次发出熊市底部信号。 与此同时，总体需求仅显示出部分复苏的迹象。 本文根据 的编辑政策制作，仅供参考。它不构成投资建议或推荐。所有投资和交易均存在风险；鼓励读者进行独立研究。 比特币价格 市场分析 比特币
Bitcoin price gains approached 10% for the first two weeks of the month, but analysis warned of the bear market returning from August onward.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing its best month of July since 2022, but analysis warns that the result may be firmly bearish.
Key points:
Bitcoin is nearing double-digit gains for July, but market reactions draw comparisons to 2022.
Bear-market patterns call for downside to resume next month before a Q4 bottom.
$70,000 remains a target for the current bounce.
Analyst sees BTC price "picking up" for rest of July before reversal
Data from CoinGlass shows that at 9.5%, BTC/USD is setting a four-year record for July gains.
Bitcoin’s last bear-market year, in 2022, saw price end July nearly 17% higher after significant 38% losses the month prior. What happened in August, however, showed that calls for bullish continuation at the time were premature. BTC/USD fell 14%, followed by a further 3% drop in September.
This time, market participants are predictably cautious over short-term price strength.
“$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the CoinGlass numbers in an X post on Saturday.
Daan Crypto Trades noted that even taking bull markets into account, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with average gains of just 6%.
“This has to do a lot with slow markets, low liquidity and volumes during the Summer time,” he added.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Also concerned about seasonality is trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who noted that BTC price performance in 2026 is matching its previous bear markets closely.
“If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July,” he told X followers this week.
BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
As reported, Rekt Capital sees August canceling out this month’s gains in preparation for a classic bear-market bottom later in the year.
$70,000 on the radar for July BTC price bounce
Other market participants are meanwhile preparing targets for the rest of July, with $70,000 becoming popular.
Related: Bitcoin returns to $64.3K with new 3-week BTC price highs imminent
“Interesting few days ahead,” Peter Anthony, creator of the House of Crypto YouTube channel, forecast while analyzing the daily chart.
Another trader eyed the area between $67,000 and $73,000 for a short entry, also predicting a “bullish July, then Bearish August until Q4.”
“Q4 is when the real volatility takes place for BTC (both directions),” Daan Crypto Trades concluded.
“Will this year be the same?”
Earlier, flagged multiple onchain indicators now flashing bear-market bottom signals for the first time in four years.
Overall demand, meanwhile, has shown only partial signs of recovery.
This article is produced in accordance with 's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
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