TL;DR：三大科技巨头同时 IPO 可能引发近年来最大的科技上市浪潮之一：SpaceX 目标 IPO 以及 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 最新一轮融资的总估值超过 3.5 万亿美元。这不仅考验资本市场对创新技术的定价能力，也引发了对其对市场流动性影响的广泛争论。SpaceX估值逻辑从航空航天转向全球基础设施：市场关注点逐渐从火箭发射转向星链打造的全球通信网络，优先考虑其长期增长潜力和基础设施属性。OpenAI和Anthropic首次提出重大基础模型投资标的：代表生成式AI的核心生产力，它们的上市可能会迫使重新定价市场可能夸大了大规模IPO的“虹吸效应”：历史数据表明，大规模IPO主要推动资本重新配置，而非流动性蒸发，很少成为系统性风险的直接催化剂。加密市场面临阶段性资本竞争，但仍不景气。
内部周期认为：虽然某些人工智能概念代币可能会受到资本转移的影响，但加密市场的长期轨迹仍将在很大程度上取决于宏观流动性、监管环境和比特币周期。真正值得关注的是高估值能否实现：如果未来收入增长、商业进展或盈利能力改善低于市场预期，这些公司和更广泛的科技增长领域可能面临严重的估值重新定价压力。2026年资本市场将迎来最令人期待的市场之一近年来，科技股IPO浪潮席卷华尔街、硅谷和加密货币市场，围绕SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic这三大独角兽公司的上市进程展开了激烈的讨论。基于 SpaceX 的目标
TL;DR:
Three Tech Giants’ Concurrent IPOs Could Trigger One of the Largest Tech Listing Waves in Recent Years: The combined valuation of SpaceX’s target IPO and the latest funding rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic exceeds $3.5 trillion. This not only tests the capital market’s ability to price innovative technologies but also fuels widespread debate over its impact on market liquidity.
SpaceX’s Valuation Logic Pivots from Aerospace to Global Infrastructure: The market’s focus has gradually shifted from rocket launches to the global communication network built by Starlink, prioritizing its long-term growth potential and infrastructure attributes.
OpenAI and Anthropic to Offer First Major Foundation Model Investment Targets: Representing the core productivity of generative AI, their public debuts could force a repricing across the AI sector, intensifying competition for concept-driven AI assets.
The “Siphon Effect” of Mega-IPOs May Be Overstated by the Market: Historical data suggests that massive IPOs primarily drive capital reallocation rather than liquidity evaporation, and rarely serve as direct catalysts for systemic risks.
Crypto Market Faces Phased Capital Competition but Remains Driven by Internal Cycles: While certain AI-concept tokens might suffer from capital diversion, the crypto market’s long-term trajectory will still largely depend on macro liquidity, the regulatory environment, and the Bitcoin cycle.
The Real Concern is Whether Lofty Valuations Can Materialize: Should future revenue growth, commercial progress, or profitability improvements miss market expectations, these companies and the broader tech growth sector could face severe valuation repricing pressure.
The capital market in 2026 is ushering in one of the most highly anticipated waves of tech IPOs in recent years.
Discussions across Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and the crypto market are heating up around the listing processes of three mega-unicorns: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Based on SpaceX’s target IPO valuation and the latest funding valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic, the combined valuation of these three companies exceeds $3.5 trillion. If their listing plans proceed as the market expects, this will become one of the largest tech IPO waves in recent years. Specifically, SpaceX is targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, OpenAI is valued at around $852 billion, and Anthropic at roughly $965 billion. It is worth noting that while Anthropic’s current funding valuation is higher than OpenAI’s, this primarily reflects different funding rounds and market pricing expectations, rather than implying its commercial scale has surpassed OpenAI’s. Regardless of how the final offering prices adjust, this will be the largest and most far-reaching wave of tech IPOs in recent memory.
Such massive scale naturally triggers market concerns about liquidity. Some investors believe the public debuts of these three companies could siphon off significant capital, pressuring other growth stocks and potentially even impacting the crypto market. Others worry that the persistent fervor around AI and aerospace concepts is forming a new asset bubble; if post-IPO performance falls short of expectations, it could trigger a valuation repricing across the entire tech sector and even the broader risk asset market.
But at the same time, other market observers note that concerns over this “capital siphon effect” are noticeably exaggerated. The total market capitalization of U.S. equities is already in the tens of trillions of dollars, and mega-IPOs typically result in capital reallocation rather than capital evaporation. Historically, mega-listings like Alibaba and Saudi Aramco sparked similar debates, yet neither acted as a catalyst for a market crash. So, what makes this time different? What do the IPOs of these three companies truly mean? Do they genuinely possess the power to tank the stock and crypto markets?
SpaceX: The Market is No Longer Buying Rockets, but Global Infrastructure
If one had to select the most legendary company among the three, SpaceX would undoubtedly be the strongest candidate. Since its founding in 2002, Elon Musk has spent over two decades evolving a startup into the core force of the global commercial space industry. For a long time, public perception of SpaceX was largely confined to rocket launches and space exploration, but the capital market’s valuation logic for the company has now fundamentally shifted.
According to publicly disclosed prospectus filings, the company’s 2025 revenue was approximately $18.67 billion. Notably, Starlink-related revenue accounted for about $11.39 billion, representing roughly 61% of total revenue and establishing itself as the company’s primary income source. Compared to the rocket launch business, Starlink clearly boasts greater growth potential. By deploying a low-Earth orbit satellite network, Starlink is building a global data communication infrastructure, making its business model closer to an internet platform than a traditional aerospace company. For investors, SpaceX’s core value is no longer just rockets, but a network platform capable of covering users worldwide.
This is a key reason why some investors are willing to support its target IPO valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. In the eyes of certain investors, SpaceX’s current valuation logic is closer to an “aerospace version of Amazon” or a “space-based AWS.” The market’s focus has gradually shifted from rocket launches to the global communication infrastructure network represented by Starlink. Theoretically, as network deployment matures, the marginal cost of acquiring new users is expected to decline, and user growth could yield long-term, stable cash flows. Meanwhile, government contracts, commercial launches, and the future commercial application of Starship provide additional upside for the company.
Naturally, such a lofty valuation is not without controversy. Public data shows the company still recorded a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion in 2025. For traditional investors, it may seem difficult to justify a trillion-dollar valuation for a company that has yet to achieve stable profitability. Wall Street, however, is clearly more focused on long-term growth capacity. Both Starlink’s expansion and Starship’s development are typical heavy front-loaded investments. The market is willing to tolerate near-term margin pressure, provided it believes these investments will translate into a larger future market share.
More importantly, SpaceX’s IPO is not just a corporate financing event; it is viewed as a major milestone for the commercial aerospace industry. Historically, the space sector has been perceived as capital-intensive, with long cycles and limited exit channels. If SpaceX successfully goes public, it will significantly elevate the financing capabilities and valuation benchmarks of the entire supply chain, benefiting players from satellite manufacturers to ground communication equipment providers and aerospace material suppliers.
Yet, precisely because of its immense size, SpaceX’s listing is a primary source of the market’s liquidity concerns. Based on currently circulating issuance plans, SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history. For large institutional investors, this means they must proactively adjust their portfolios to free up capital for the new offering. Selected tech growth stocks, high-valuation AI concept stocks, and even certain risk assets could become sources of this capital. Consequently, many analysts have dubbed SpaceX the “super liquidity magnet” of this IPO wave.
OpenAI and Anthropic: Two Tickets to the AI Era
If SpaceX represents the infrastructure of the future, then OpenAI and Anthropic represent the productivity of the future.
Over the past three years, generative AI has rapidly evolved from a laboratory technology into one of the most vital investment themes in global capital markets. Since the release of ChatGPT, artificial intelligence has virtually reshaped the development logic of the entire tech industry. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are all launching new rounds of competition centered around AI. Standing at the center of this wave are OpenAI and Anthropic.
OpenAI is widely regarded as one of the primary beneficiaries of this generative AI wave. With ChatGPT, the company completed a swift transition from a research institution to a commercial platform. API services, enterprise-grade solutions, and ecological partnerships are driving rapid revenue growth. Although the company remains in a phase of heavy investment, investors generally believe OpenAI has the potential to become the next-generation software platform. Following a new funding round in March 2026, the company’s valuation reached approximately $852 billion, and it has confidentially filed for its IPO. The market widely speculates that if the IPO proceeds smoothly, its valuation could edge closer to the $1 trillion mark, though no official valuation guidance has been disclosed yet.
Compared to OpenAI, Anthropic’s development trajectory has been relatively low-profile, but its growth speed has equally captured market attention. Founded much later than OpenAI, the company quickly won the endorsement of enterprise clients through its Claude series models and a sustained commitment to AI safety and reliability. According to disclosures from its latest funding round, Anthropic’s valuation reached approximately $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s current funding valuation of $852 billion. Concurrently, the company has also filed confidentially for an IPO. For many institutional investors, Anthropic represents an alternative AI development path — one that places greater emphasis on enterprise scenarios, risk control, and long-term governance structures.
From a capital market perspective, the significance of OpenAI and Anthropic going public extends far beyond the companies themselves. Over the past few years, AI concepts have largely dominated the valuation frameworks of global tech stocks, yet there have been very few pure-play AI leaders available for direct investment. Nvidia is primarily a compute power provider, while Microsoft and Google are integrated tech platforms. OpenAI and Anthropic are among the few companies that directly represent the industrial value of large foundation models.
This means that once these two companies hit the public market, global capital will, for the first time, have the opportunity to directly invest in massive foundation model companies. For many institutions, this appeal might even eclipse that of some traditional tech giants. Because of this, many investors have begun to wonder: when capital flows heavily toward these AI leaders, will other tech assets, and even the crypto market, experience significant capital diversion?
Why Does the Market Fear These Three IPOs Will “Drain” Market Liquidity?
In reality, whenever a mega-IPO hits the market, similar concerns resurface.
The underlying logic is straightforward. An IPO fundamentally transfers new equity supply from private to public markets, and the capital institutional investors use to subscribe does not materialize out of thin air. For large pension funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, and hedge funds, participating in a new share issuance often requires liquidating existing portfolio positions to free up cash. Thus, when multiple mega-IPOs occur simultaneously, a capital rotation from other assets into the new listings is almost inevitable.
From this perspective, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic certainly possess the conditions to create a “siphon effect.” Based on current market estimates, their combined valuation exceeds $3.5 trillion. Even if the actual public float percentage is far lower, it is still enough to become one of the most crucial capital allocation destinations in global markets. For many institutions that are long-term bullish on AI and tech innovation, participating in these IPOs is not just an investment opportunity, but a strategic allocation.
The core of the market’s concern is not the IPOs themselves, but where the capital might be drawn from. If institutional investors choose to reduce holdings in existing tech stocks to participate in the offerings, certain growth sectors could face short-term pressure. If the source of funds extends to higher-risk assets, parts of the crypto market could similarly be affected. Therefore, whenever mega-IPOs approach, discussions about a “liquidity drain” inevitably arise.
The catch, however, is that theoretical capital diversion does not equate to a market crash.
The total capitalization of the U.S. stock market approaches $80 trillion, with highly substantial daily trading volumes. Even if all three companies successfully list, the actual percentage of shares entering market circulation will remain limited. Historical experience indicates that the true determinant of market direction is never new equity supply, but rather the overall liquidity environment. During easing cycles, new supply from mega-IPOs is often rapidly absorbed; during tightening cycles, markets may experience corrections due to economic slowdowns or rising interest rates, regardless of IPO activity.
In other words, a mega-IPO acts more as an amplifier than a root cause. If the market is inherently fragile, a massive listing might exacerbate volatility; but if market liquidity is abundant and risk appetite is high, the IPO is often just another part of the capital rotation cycle.
What Does Historical Experience Tell Us?
Looking back over the past two decades in capital markets, mega-IPOs frequently draw massive attention, but cases where they actually trigger systemic risk are exceptionally rare.
In 2014, Alibaba’s debut on the NYSE set a global record for fundraising at the time. The market harbored similar fears that the massive financing would shock the U.S. stock market. However, reality proved that Alibaba’s listing mostly drew global capital attention to the Chinese internet sector without altering the overarching trajectory of U.S. equities. In the years that followed, the U.S. market sustained its bull run.
In 2019, Saudi Aramco raised nearly $30 billion, breaking the global IPO record once again. Given the context of slowing global economic growth and rising geopolitical risks at the time, many analysts believed such massive financing needs could strain market liquidity. Yet, the outcome once again proved that the market’s capacity to absorb mega-IPOs far exceeded expectations.
Even the highly anticipated listing of Arm in recent years did not exert a decisive impact on the overall trend of tech stocks. Short-term volatility was present, but it largely reflected internal capital reallocation within the sector, rather than an evaporation of market-wide liquidity.
The fundamental reason for this phenomenon is that the capital market is not a fixed-capacity pool. The listing of high-quality assets often attracts new capital into the market, rather than simply draining funds from older assets. For global institutional investors in particular, the emergence of truly scarce targets is usually accompanied by incremental allocation demand, not just internal shuffling.
Therefore, drawing from historical experience, while it is unsurprising that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will induce market volatility, equating their IPOs directly to a market crash lacks sufficient evidence.
Impact on the Stock Market: Short-Term Volatility is Inevitable, Long-Term Resembles a Valuation Reset
If there is one market segment that will face the most direct impact from these three IPOs, it is undoubtedly the tech sector.
Over the past few years, AI has emerged as one of the most dominant investment themes globally. From Nvidia to cloud computing, from data centers to software services, numerous companies have enjoyed valuation premiums simply for being AI-adjacent. However, companies truly capable of representing the value creation of large foundation models had yet to enter the public markets. The arrival of OpenAI and Anthropic means that investors will have their first opportunity to directly invest in core AI assets.
This shift will likely lead to a repricing within the AI sector.
Companies relying on concept-driven narratives may see their valuation premiums contract as investors finally gain access to purer AI targets. Conversely, enterprises that genuinely benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure — such as compute providers, data center operators, and enterprise software platforms — will likely continue to receive capital support.
The impact of SpaceX, on the other hand, is somewhat different. For satellite communications, commercial aerospace, and related infrastructure firms, SpaceX’s listing will establish a new valuation anchor for the industry. The market will, for the first time, have a publicly traded commercial space leader as a reference point, potentially driving a repricing across the entire supply chain.
From a long-term perspective, the listing of these three companies is more likely to reinforce the importance of the tech sector rather than weaken it. Over time, once they meet the necessary criteria and are included in major indices, a vast amount of ETFs and index funds will passively allocate to these companies. By then, the scale of global capital inflows might even surpass the IPO phase itself.
Therefore, for the stock market, what truly warrants attention is not the performance on IPO day, but whether these companies can deliver on the growth expectations priced in by the market over the coming years.
Impact on the Crypto Market: Competition Exists, But Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Bearishness
Compared to equities, the crypto market is more sensitive to shifts in capital flows, leading to much more intense debate on this front.
Over the past few years, AI and Crypto have been arguably the two main tracks most closely watched by venture capital. Several venture funds and growth capital firms have simultaneously deployed capital across both AI and Crypto sectors, resulting in a clear overlap in funding sources. Once OpenAI and Anthropic officially enter the public markets, it is highly probable that some institutional capital will pivot toward these AI assets.
This competition could be particularly acute for certain AI-concept tokens.
Before AI companies went public, many investors opted to express their bullishness on the AI industry via AI-related tokens. However, once OpenAI or Anthropic become publicly traded assets, investors will naturally ask: If I can directly hold the most core companies in the AI industry, is it still necessary to bear the higher volatility and risk of concept tokens?
From this perspective, some narrative-driven AI tokens, VC concept projects, and crypto assets lacking genuine revenue support may indeed face capital diversion pressure.
Nevertheless, extrapolating this pressure into a “crypto market crash” also lacks basis.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have gradually formed relatively independent operational logic. ETF capital flows, the regulatory environment, global monetary policy, and Bitcoin’s own cycle typically exert a more decisive impact than any single IPO event. Historically, U.S. equities and the crypto market have exhibited both synchronized rallies and significant divergences; it is difficult to explain the trajectory of both through a single event.
More importantly, AI and blockchain are not strictly competing forces. As the scale of AI applications continues to expand, areas such as decentralized compute networks, on-chain data markets, and AI Agent infrastructure may actually discover new growth opportunities. In the long run, the prosperity of the AI industry will not necessarily undermine Crypto; instead, it could forge new scenarios for integration.
The Real Risk is Not the IPOs, but Valuation Expectations
If there is a genuine risk associated with these three mega-IPOs, it stems not from the listings themselves, but from the market’s expectations of future growth.
The current valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all built on highly optimistic assumptions about the future. Investors are willing to award trillion-dollar valuations because they believe these companies will become the world’s most critical infrastructure platforms. If revenue growth slows, commercial progress falls short, or profitability improvements lag behind market expectations, a valuation reset will be unavoidable.
This risk would not hit the entire market first, but rather the AI sector and high-growth tech stocks. The higher the market’s future expectations, the steeper the resulting correction when reality falls short of those projections.
From this vantage point, what the market truly needs to watch is not the IPOs themselves, but the ability of these companies to deliver on their performance targets post-listing.
Conclusion
The public debuts of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic represent a concentrated pricing exercise by the global capital market regarding the next generation of tech infrastructure and AI platforms, rather than a precursor to a market crash. In the short term, capital diversion, sector rotation, and valuation repricing are almost inevitable, and certain AI concept stocks and crypto assets may face competitive pressure. However, historical experience shows that mega-IPOs rarely trigger systemic risks, let alone dictate the long-term direction of equities or the crypto market.
The true determinants of market trends remain the macro liquidity environment, corporate profitability, and investor risk appetite. For investors, rather than worrying about whether these three IPOs will tank the market, it is better to focus on whether the growth logic underpinning these trillion-dollar valuations will ultimately materialize. After all, capital markets have never feared massive dreams; what truly wounds the market are unfulfilled expectations.
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