CFTC 执法部门发布预测市场咨询

CFTC 执法部门发布预测市场咨询 |美国商品期货交易委员会
版本号 9185-26
CFTC 执法部门发布预测市场咨询
2026 年 2 月 25 日
华盛顿——商品期货交易委员会执法部门今天发布了一份咨询意见，此前公开发布了两起执法案件，涉及滥用非公开信息和涉及在指定合约市场 KalshiEX 上交易的某些预测市场（也称为事件合约）的欺诈行为。这些执法案件包括以下内容：
2025 年 5 月，社交媒体帖子中包含的视频似乎显示一名政治候选人在卡尔希上以自己的候选资格进行交易。 Kalshi 的合规团队于当天联系了该候选人，该交易员承认他知道这些交易是不当的，并且违反了 Kalshi 的规则，该规则禁止交易交易者对结果有直接或间接影响的合约。 Kalshi 处以 2,246.36 美元的罚款（与不当交易活动相关的没收 246.36 美元，另加 2,000.00 美元的罚款），并暂停 5 年直接或间接进入交易所的资格。基于这一事实模式，交易者可能违反了《商品交易法》（法案）第 6(c)(1) 条以及委员会条例（条例）第 180.1(a)(1) 和 (3) 条，因为该交易者使用操纵计划或诡计进行欺诈，或者从事或试图从事对任何其他人构成欺诈的行为、做法或业务过程。
2025 年 8 月和 9 月，一名个人在与合同标的存在雇佣关系或其他正式关系的同时，在与 YouTube 频道相关的预测市场进行交易，交易者可能通过这种关系获取与其交易相关的重要非公开信息，从而违反了交易规则。在调查了非常成功的交易和负责的交易员后，卡尔希发现该交易员是 YouTube 频道的编辑，他可能在公开发布该频道视频的内容之前就对该频道的内容有深入的了解。 Kalshi 得出的结论是，有理由相信这些交易是基于违反既存义务而被盗用的重要非公开信息，并处以 20,397.58 美元的罚款（返还非法交易利润 5,397.58 美元，另加 15,000.00 美元的罚款），并暂停直接或间接进入交易所 2 年。基于这一事实模式，交易者可能违反了禁止盗用机密信息的规定，违反了对信息来源预先存在的信任和保密义务（通常称为“insi
der 交易”）根据该法第 6(c)(1) 条以及第 180.1(a)(1) 和 (3) 条。
虽然 Kalshi 的内部执法计划负责处理这些问题，但根据该法案，委员会拥有全权监管任何 DCM 上发生的非法交易行为，包括上述与预测市场相关的交易行为。这些做法包括但不限于：
根据该法第 6(c)(1) 条以及第 180.1(a)(1) 和 (3) 条，盗用机密信息，违反对信息来源预先存在的信任和保密义务（通常称为“内幕交易”）；例如，参见 CFTC 诉 Clark，民事诉讼编号 4:22-cv-00365（德克萨斯州南区，2026 年 1 月 29 日同意令）；在韦伯等人中。 ，CFTC 案卷编号 21-09（2021 年 6 月 14 日管理命令）。
根据该法第 4c(a)(1) 和 (2)(A) 条以及第 1.38(a) 条规定的预先安排、非竞争性交易和洗售；参见，例如，In re Khorrami 等人。 ，CFTC 案卷第 20-15 号（2020 年 5 月 7 日管理命令）； CFTC 诉 Singhal 等人。 ，民事诉讼编号 1:12-cv-00138（伊利诺伊州北区，2012 年 11 月 28 日同意令）。
其他禁止的交易行为，包括第 4c(a)(5) 条规定的破坏性交易；例如，参见 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co. Ltd. 案，CFTC 案卷第 20-11 号（2020 年 1 月 13 日管理命令）。
该法各部分规定的欺诈和操纵行为；参见，例如，In re Dairy Farmers of America, Inc. 等。 ，CFTC 案卷编号 09-02（2008 年 12 月 16 日管理命令）。
根据该法案的核心原则，DCM 具有独立的职责，以维护审计跟踪、进行监督并针对禁止的做法执行规则。请参阅该法案第 5(d) 条（合约市场的核心原则）。在适当的情况下，该部门将调查并起诉违规行为，就像对待 DCM 上发生的行为一样。该司继续与 DCM 就执法事项进行协调，并将适当的潜在违规行为移交给该司进行调查。
-CFTC-

CFTC Enforcement Division Issues Prediction Markets Advisory | CFTC
Release Number 9185-26
CFTC Enforcement Division Issues Prediction Markets Advisory
February 25, 2026
WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Enforcement today has issued an advisory following public release of two enforcement cases involving misuse of nonpublic information and fraud with respect to certain prediction markets, also known as event contracts, traded on KalshiEX, a Designated Contract Market. These enforcement cases included the following:
In May 2025, social media posts contained videos that appeared to show a political candidate trading on his own candidacy on Kalshi. Kalshi’s compliance team contacted the candidate that same day, and the trader acknowledged that he knew these trades were improper and violated Kalshi’s rules, which prohibit trading in a contract over which the trader has direct or indirect influence over the outcome. Kalshi imposed a $2,246.36 financial penalty (disgorgement of $246.36 related to the improper trading activity, plus a $2,000.00 penalty) and a 5-year suspension from direct or indirect access to the exchange. Based on this fact pattern, the trader potentially violated Section 6(c)(1) of the Commodity Exchange Act (Act), and Commission Regulation (Regulation) 180.1(a)(1) and (3) for use of a manipulative scheme or artifice to defraud, or engaging or attempting to engage in an act, practice or course of business that operates as a fraud on any other person.
In August and September 2025, an individual traded a prediction market related to a YouTube channel while having an employment relationship or other formal affiliation with the subject of the contract, through which the trader likely had access to material non-public information related to his trades, in violation of exchange rules. Upon investigating the highly successful trades and the trader responsible, Kalshi discovered that the trader was an editor for a YouTube channel who likely had advanced knowledge of the contents of the channel’s videos prior to the time they were publicly posted. Kalshi concluded there was reasonable belief that the trades were based on material non-public information misappropriated in violation of a pre-existing duty and imposed a $20,397.58 financial penalty (disgorgement of $5,397.58 in profits from the illicit trading, plus a $15,000.00 penalty) and a 2-year suspension from direct or indirect access to the exchange. Based on this fact pattern, the trader potentially violated prohibitions on misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information (commonly known as “insider trading”) pursuant to Section 6(c)(1) of the Act, and Regulation 180.1(a)(1) and (3).
While Kalshi’s internal enforcement program handled these matters, under the Act, the Commission has full authority to police illegal trading practices occurring on any DCM, including those described above related to prediction markets. Without limitation, these practices include:
Misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information (commonly known as “insider trading”) pursuant to Section 6(c)(1) of the Act, and Regulation 180.1(a)(1) and (3); see, e.g., CFTC v. Clark, Civil Action No. 4:22-cv-00365 (S.D. Tex., Jan. 29, 2026 consent order); In re Webb, et al. , CFTC Docket No. 21-09 (June 14, 2021 admin. order).
Pre-arranged, noncompetitive trading and wash sales, under Section 4c(a)(1) and (2)(A) of the Act, and Regulation 1.38(a); see, e.g., In re Khorrami, et al. , CFTC Docket No. 20-15 (May 7, 2020 admin. order); CFTC v. Singhal, et al. , Civil Action No. 1:12-cv-00138 (N.D. Ill., Nov. 28, 2012 consent order).
Other prohibited trading practices including disruptive trading pursuant to Section 4c(a)(5); see, e.g., In re Mirae Asset Daewoo Co. Ltd. , CFTC Docket No. 20-11 (Jan. 13, 2020 admin. order).
Fraud and manipulation under various sections of the Act; see, e.g., In re Dairy Farmers of America, Inc., et al. , CFTC Docket No. 09-02 (Dec. 16, 2008 admin. order).
DCMs have an independent duty pursuant to the core principles of the Act to maintain audit trails, conduct surveillance, and enforce rules against prohibited practices. See Section 5(d) of the Act (Core Principles for Contract Markets). In appropriate cases, the Division will investigate and prosecute violations, as it always has with respect to conduct occurring on DCMs. The Division continues to coordinate with DCMs regarding their enforcement dockets and referral of appropriate potential violations to the Division for investigation.
-CFTC-